Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Today's Polls, 10/6

Posted from today's fivethirtyeight.com.

As McCain goes negative, the outlook grows ever more positive for Obama. The only thing that could bring Obama down would be a proven revelation that he's linked to Al Quieda. McCain is trying with these Ayer's attacks, but ironically, it looks like McCain is the terrorist - on the campaign trail, on the Keating Trail and now with the revelations of his ties to a radical group in the early 80's - the US Council for World Freedom, a group linked to former Nazi collaborators and ultra-right wing death squads in Central America. Obama is playing war with McCain and he's winning....it's a beautiful war to watch. Mark

Are John McCain's negative attacks succeeding in eating into some of Barack Obama's support? They certainly aren't yet. In fact, Barack Obama has had perhaps his strongest individual polling day of the year:

You can read these numbers as well as I can. Obama leads by 6 in North Carolina? 12 in Virginia? 7 in Florida? 3 in Missouri? Obviously, I am cherrypicking some of the more pro-Obama results here ... but the point is, there are a lot of favorable results these days for Barack Obama.

The larger Obama's margin in the popular vote becomes (and over the course of the past several weeks, he's been gaining a full a point on McCain roughly every three days) the less the relative positioning of the states matters. For John McCain to get back into this race, he is going to need some dramatic events to occur, and we don't know in which types of states such events might have a differential impact; something like an outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East could make a very different electoral footprint than new revelations about Barack Obama and William Ayers.

For that reason, the proper strategy is probably now to play a fairly large map; Obama in particular wants to keep as many doors open as possible if and when something bad happens to his campaign.

For the time being, however, John McCain is facing third and long -- and appears that he's about to get sacked.

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