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What are John McCain's chances in Pennsylvania? Well, in the plus column: Barack Obama lost Pennsylvania to Hillary Clinton in April, and the state's Democratic governor Ed Rendell has worried about cultural conservatives not voting for a black man. The minus column? McCain trails between seven and 14 points according to the polls; Pennsylvania has gone Democratic in the past four presidential elections; and the state has one million more registered Democrats than Republicans, McCain has decided to put his eggs in the Keystone State's basket, and Rendell is sufficiently worried to have recruited Bill Clinton to stump for Obama in the state's western, rural parts. The McCain campaign insists that its internal polls have him within striking distance of victory.
A majorityof the Online100 however disagreed with Politico’s source, as 63% of panelists disagreed with that statement. 30% of respondents agreed with the statement however.
Senator Barack Obama at a rally at Widener University in Chester, Pa., Tuesday. A preview of his 30-minute-long infomercial was heavy on Americana
WASHINGTON — Senator Barack Obama will use his prime-time half-hour infomercial on Wednesday night to make what is effectively a closing argument to a national audience of millions. At times he will speak directly into the camera about his 20-month campaign, at others he will highlight everyday voters, their everyday troubles, and his plans to address them.
Mr. Obama’s campaign agreed to provide The New York Times with a minute-long trailer for the 30-minute program, which is to run on four broadcast networks at 8 p.m. It will be the first time in 16 years that a presidential candidate has bought network time, in prime time, for a prolonged campaign commercial.
Tuesday 28 October 2008
by: Sean Cockerham, Anchorage Daily News
Ted Stevens' conviction further threatens the GOP. (Artwork: Oregon Live)
A defiant Sen. Ted Stevens is returning to Alaska on Wednesday to resume his re-election campaign, despite being convicted of felonies that carry the potential of years in prison.
Stevens, 84, faces a challenge of historic proportions with just one week before the election. He'd be the first convicted U.S. senator ever elected, on appeal or not.
Alaska pollsters and political consultants were skeptical of Stevens' chances Monday but not prepared to count out the longest serving Republican in Senate history. Several pointed out that, contrary to most predictions, Stevens surged in the polls after his indictment in late July, coming from far behind to what's essentially a tie with Democratic opponent Mark Begich in most recent polls.
"That had to be people rallying to Ted against these Outside influences attacking their senator. It's possible, extremely unlikely, that with the conviction we'll get another backlash against this Outside influence," said Anchorage pollster Marc Hellenthal.
The mood at Stevens' Anchorage campaign headquarters was one of stunned horror immediately after the conviction came down mid-day Monday. People milled inside while two young volunteers stood in the cold guarding the door. One of them looked close to tears.
Hours later, the news had settled in. The guards were gone, the campaign ordered Moose's Tooth pizza for its workers and Stevens' backers started talking about what's next.
"I think it will be a battle but we're going to throw every ounce of effort into doing so," said political consultant Art Hackney, who is working on the Stevens campaign.
Hackney said it's going to be a "nonstop campaigning, very aggressive," once Stevens gets back to Alaska. He said the campaign has to ask people to withhold their judgment.
"And basically what I think most people understand, it's really three words - prosecutorial misconduct and appeal," he said. "And other than that it's campaigning on the record of what he's done and what he can do."
Sharp Divide
Larry Sabato, who publishes the nationally watched Crystal Ball forecasts of congressional races, said he can't imagine Alaskans would re-elect a U.S. senator just convicted of seven felonies.
"It would make Alaska a national laughingstock," said Sabato, who directs the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
The National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee appears to have given up on Stevens.
"Ted Stevens served his constituents for over 40 years and I am disappointed to see his career end in disgrace," said NRSC Chairman John Ensign, a senator from Nevada.
Carl Shepro, a political science professor at the University of Alaska Anchorage, said that kind of talk might be premature. Shepro said he believes Stevens still has a real chance to win re-election next week despite the conviction.
"Right now I'm in Fairbanks. It's pretty amazing the advertisements for him and the testimonials and stuff," Shepro said. "It's certainly difficult to think they are just going to turn around because of the conviction, and with appeals this could drag out for years."
Stevens' Democratic opponent, Anchorage Mayor Begich, was playing it safe on Monday. Begich read a 14-second statement that said it's been a tough year but time to move on. He then refused to answer any questions from reporters.
Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, who recruited Begich to run, wasn't feeling so shy. He called on Stevens to "now respect the outcome of the judicial process and the dignity of the United States Senate." The Alaska Democratic party said Stevens should resign.
U.S. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said Stevens must face the consequences of the verdict and will be held accountable so public trust can be restored.
But Alaska's other U.S. senator, Republican Lisa Murkowski, said the prosecution committed several gaffes during the trial and she'll stand with Stevens as he pursues his appeal.
Rural Support
There's nothing in the U.S. Constitution or Senate rules to keep a convicted felon from being a senator.
Stevens' colleagues could expel him with a two-thirds vote if he's re-elected, or even before his current term ends in January.
If Stevens resigned or was expelled, the seat would stay empty until a special election within 90 days.
Todd Larkin of North Pole, who has been active in the state Republican Party, said Stevens could win, and then resign, allowing the Republicans to put up a candidate in the special election. That's a potential scenario state party officials are talking about to keep the seat out of Democratic hands.
Stevens isn't talking about resigning yet. His campaign sent a message to supporters Monday saying "overzealous prosecutors" deprived Stevens of his rights and that 12 jurors who have never been to Alaska shouldn't decide the race.
Stevens is particularly strong in rural Alaska. Matthew Nicolai, president of the Calista Corp., one of 13 regional Native corporations, estimated Stevens represents about $1 billion a year in federal projects to rural Alaska. He said the 40-year senator has visited nearly all of the 56 villages in the Calista region at one time or another. Nicolai said he thinks Stevens can still be re-elected.
Rep. Reggie Joule, who represents Kotzebue in the state Legislature, heard news of the verdict while preparing for a caribou hunt. Joule is a Democrat but has stumped for Stevens during the campaign.
During the Alaska Federation of Natives convention, some rural voters walked to the nearby Anchorage City Hall to cast early ballots last week - before the verdict, he said. "Sen. Stevens has a lot of loyal backers, and a lot of people have voted already."
Asked if he still plans to vote for Stevens, Joule hadn't decided.
"There's a piece of me that's really torn. So, I guess when I get inside the polling booth, I'll cast my vote," he said.
Alaska Republican Congressman Don Young, who is under federal investigation and facing his own tough re-election battle, said he thinks Stevens can still win next week.
"He's the best thing for that, for the Senate. Alaskans know this. This is a trumped up charge.... I can remember Richard Nixon, you know, his years of service, what he's done. And everybody were ridiculing him and he ended up being the greatest president in the history of our century," Young said.
Young, who has not been charged, said the Stevens conviction doesn't make him more concerned about what federal prosecutors might be planning for him.
"I have no problem with anything. I know where I'm going, where I've been and what I've done," he said.
Pollsters Get Busy
Pollsters said a Stevens acquittal could have given Young a needed boost, helping to give voters doubt about the federal investigation of Young. Clem Tillion, a Republican former president of the state Senate, seemed to agree.
"I think it's going to be harder on Don Young than it is on Ted Stevens," Tillion said.
Alaska pollsters will be scrambling in the coming days to test the effect of Monday's conviction on both Young's U.S. House race and Stevens' Senate bid.
Most recent polls have showed Begich and Stevens being statistically tied. But a Craciun Research Group Inc. poll over the weekend put Begich in the lead by 12 percentage points, after the closing arguments but before the jury came in with a verdict.
Pollster Anne Hays said it's been a close race, according to her numbers, but she expects "the dam to open up," following the conviction. Ivan Moore, another Anchorage pollster, said there's no way to know for sure what the conviction will bring.
"This is one of those situations where nothing like this ever happened before," Moore said. "But I think it's pretty clear Ted's going to have a hard time winning next week."
Quinnipiac University
10/22-26/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)
Florida 1,435 LV, 2.6%
Obama 47, McCain 45
Ohio 1,425 LV, 2.6%
Obama 51, McCain 42
Pennsylvania 1,364 LV, 2.7%
Obama 53, McCain 41
Remember when, in the wake of the "proud of my country" kerfuffle, it seemed as though Michelle Obama might be her husband's campaign's greatest liability? Count that now as another unrealized rightwing fantasy. The New York Times runs an article today about Michelle Obama's evolution into a "disciplined and effective advocate for her husband." She has been deployed, recently, in key battleground states, a "sign of the campaign's confidence in her," although her focus is often soft—on motherhood and humanizing Barack. This is reflected too in her choice of interview venues, like The View, Ellen, and The Daily Show. Said one aide: "There is not one vote she will get from doing Wolf Blitzer."
by: Barack Obama
Senator Barack Obama in Pennsylvania. (Photo: Reuters)
"I know these are difficult times for America. But I also know that we have faced difficult times before. The American story has never been about things coming easy - it's been about rising to the moment when the moment was hard. It's about seeing the highest mountaintop from the deepest of valleys. It's about rejecting fear and division for unity of purpose. That's how we've overcome war and depression. That's how we've won great struggles for civil rights and women's rights and worker's rights. »
by: Suzanne Goldenberg, The Guardian UK
Washington - John McCain's path to the presidency narrowed further today with reports that the Republican was giving up on Colorado, a day after a campaign swing through the battleground state by his running mate, Sarah Palin.
The signs of retrenchment for McCain came as a new poll showed Barack Obama steadily increasing his lead since mid-September. read full post here»
After September 11, President Bush encouraged Americans to go shopping. If that advice applies to our current recession, then Sarah Palin is every bit as patriotic as she claims. Politico reports that the Republican National Committee has spent over $150,000 on its vice presidential nominee's wardrobe since she was picked for the ticket in August. Nearly half of that money was spent on a single shopping spree at a Minneapolis Neiman Marcus in September. Other line items: $5,000 at Bloomingdale’s; $700 at Barney’s; $4,900 at Atelier, a “high-class shopping destination for men” beloved by First Dudes everywhere; and nearly $300 at the baby store Pacifier. The campaign says the clothes will go to charity after the election.
After Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama Sunday, it looked like things couldn't get any worse for John McCain on the endorsement score. Well, they just did. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has endorsed the economic stimulus plan supported by Obama and the Democrats. Having the Fed chairman say that Obama and the Democrats have the right ideas on the economy will surely be helpful to Obama even if he wasn't named explicitly. President Bush and the Republicans generally oppose the Democratic plan.
CNN is reporting that McCain is making those tough decisions that politicians love to talk about. According to CNN, McCain is abandoning Colorado (9 EVs), Iowa (7 EVs) and New Mexico (5 Evs). If Obama wins these three he gets 21 EVs. Add these to the 252 EVs Kerry won and he has 273 and becomes President. McCain's strategy at this point is to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and--get this--Pennsylvania. The first six are arguably swing states, but our three-poll average puts Obama 12 points ahead in Pennsylvania. McCain is effectively betting the farm on a state which looks like an Obama landslide. It is a strange choice. Colorado looks a lot easier than Pennsylvania. James Carville once famously said that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama sandwiched in between. Maybe McCain is going to go all out to win the white working class men in the Alabama section of Pennsylvania. McCain can't possibly do it on the economy. What's left? Maybe run against the Wright/Ayers ticket? Any way you look at it, this has to be a desperation move. |
by Tucker Carlson
Posted from Daily Beast
Republicans know the race is over. Only Democrats, so accustomed to failure, still believe Obama could lose.
Wondering if you're really a Democrat? Here's a quick way to find out: Given everything the Democratic party has going for it this year—the overwhelming financial advantage, the legions of new voters, George W. Bush—do you believe the Obama campaign could still somehow, in the final moments, find a way to blow it and lose this election?
If you answered yes, you're a Democrat.
Two weeks out, only the Democrats in Washington think Obama might not win. That's not the result of a scientific study, but instead the conclusion I've reached after many lunches, dinners and elevator rides with DC Democrats. Against all evidence, a good number of them have convinced themselves that John McCain is going to be the next president.
Republicans have no master plan for victory, no October Surprise. You'll never convince most Democrats of that.
Partly this is superstition, like throwing salt over your shoulder when you spill the shaker: predictions are bad luck. But it's also the voice of experience.
"We're the Cincinnati Bengals," says Jay Rouse, a longtime Democratic political consultant. "Democrats are used to losing, not winning." That's especially true at the national level, where in the past 64 years only a single Democrat has been reelected president. The last two presidential elections raised doubts about whether Democrats were capable of wining at all. "People are still traumatized by '04," says James Carville.
They shouldn't be. A mediocre candidate running against an incumbent in a time of war isn't likely to win under any circumstances; if anything, Democratic insiders were too quick to blame John Kerry for his loss. Circumstances all but doomed him from the beginning. The problem was, up until about dinner time on election night, few of Kerry's supporters realized that.
The shock stings four years later. "Democrats are losers," says one former Democratic campaign operative with sadness. "Don't underestimate the capacity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory," Obama himself told supporters last week. "Don't underestimate our ability to screw things up."
Give them a few drinks and many Democrats make remarkably self-loathing noises: we're disorganized, our interest groups are out of control, the rest of the country hates us. To these Democrats, Obama isn't really winning; the Republicans are losing. They fear fate could intervene at the last minute to change the course of the election.
It's the nightmare scenario, says Jay Rouse. "They're worried that Osama bin Laden is going to say, 'I want to have sex with Barack Obama.'"
If that happens, Karl Rove will get all the credit, at least in Democratic circles. Rove’s too busy giving speeches and doing TV to pick up his dry cleaning, yet Democrats imagine he's having breakfast with Satan every Thursday at the Four Seasons to chart strategy.
No one's more confident in Republican efficiency than Democrats. It's almost touching, and totally unwarranted. In real life, there are no WMD: Republicans have no master plan for victory, no October Surprise. The operation is as disjointed as it looks. You'll never convince most Democrats of that.
Even those Democrats who understand the true, greatly weakened state of the Republican Party have grave doubts about ordinary voters. If you've been out to dinner in a blue state in the last six weeks, you've heard the argument: This is still a racist country. Once they get in the booth, they'll never vote for a black man. It's the Bradley Effect, etc...In other words, it only looks like 2008. Actually, it's 1956.
Except that it's not. If anything, Obama’s race has been a net political asset so far. We'll find out for sure on Election Day, but in the meantime I'd be willing to bet that Obama wins a larger proportion of white men than John Kerry did four years ago. It's a different country than it used to be.
The question is whether, even in victory, Democrats will come to understand that. In order to govern successfully, they'll need to.
One Cool Customer While McCain shows how far he'll stoop, voters are discovering that whatever else you think about Barack Obama, the man is calm. Posted from prospect.org (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) |
by: Sam Stein, The Huffington Post
John McCain's campaign has directed $175,000 to the firm of a Republican operative accused of massive voter registration fraud in several states.
According to campaign finance records, a joint committee of the McCain-Palin campaign, the RNC and the California Republican Party, made a $175,000 payment to the group Lincoln Strategy in June for purposes of "registering voters." The managing partner of that firm is Nathan Sproul, a renowned GOP operative who has been investigated on multiple occasions for suppressing Democratic voter turnout, throwing away registration forms and even, once, spearheading efforts to get Ralph Nader on ballots so as to hinder the Democratic ticket. Read Full Story Here»
"There is always a charge that socialism does not fit human nature. We've encountered that for a long time. Maybe that's true. But can't people be educated? Can't people learn to cooperate with each other? Surely that must be our goal, because the alternative is redolent with war and poverty and all the ills of the world." -- Frank Zeidler
John McCain hopes to revive his campaign by suggesting that Barack Obama is some kind of socialist.
The Republican nominee for president says that his Democratic rival's plan for stimulating the economy sounds "a lot like socialism."
"At least in Europe, the socialist leaders who so admire my opponent are up front about their objectives. They use real numbers and honest language. And we should demand equal candor from Senator Obama," the Arizona senator claimed over the weekend.
Asked if he thinks Obama is a socialist, McCain offers an insinuating raised eyebrow and a shrug non-response: "I don't know."
McCain is not really concerned about socialism. He is trying to suggest that Obama is somehow un-American.
Obama's no socialist.
But, as a Wisconsinite, I can't buy the basic premise of McCain's argument.
I grew up in a state where socialism was as American as my friend Frank Zeidler.
Zeidler, an old-school American socialist who served three terms as the mayor of Milwaukee from 1948 to 1960, died two year ago at age 93. His passing was mourned by Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, who recognized the gentle radical as one of the most honorable men ever to cross the American political landscape.
Zeidler actually ran for president in 1976 as the nominee of the American Socialist Party. In fairness, it was more an educational campaign than a serious bid for an office that the former mayor never really coveted. Like so many of the great civic gestures he engaged in over eight decades of activism, Zeidler's 1976 campaign promoted the notion that: "There's nothing un-American about socialism."
Campaigning on a platform that promised a shift of national priorities from bloated defense spending to fighting poverty, rebuilding cities and creating a national health care program, Zeidler won only a portion of the respect that was due this kind and decent man and the values to which he has devoted a lifetime.
Had Zeidler been born in another land -- perhaps Germany, where the roots of his family tree were firmly planted -- his Socialist Party run would have been a much bigger deal. Indeed, he might well have been elected.
In most of the world, the social-democratic values that Zeidler advanced throughout his long life hold great sway. Latin America has been experiencing a revival of socialist fervor in recent years. And virtually every European country has elected a socialist government in the past decade. Indeed, the current leaders of Britain and Spain head political parties that are associated with the Socialist International, of which Zeidler's Socialist Party was a U.S. affiliate. In the recent Canadian elections, the socialist New Democratic Party experienced a substantial boost in its parliamentary delegation.
In Zeidler's youth, America's Socialist Party was a contender. During the 1920s, there were more Socialists in the Wisconsin legislature than Democrats, and a Wisconsin Socialist, Victor Berger, represented Milwaukee in the US House. When Norman Thomas sought the presidency as a Socialist in 1932, he received almost a million votes, and well into the 1950s Socialists ran municipal governments in Reading, Pennsylvania; Bridgeport, Connecticut and other quintessentially American cities – including Zeidler's Milwaukee.
For millions of American voters in the past century, socialism was never so frightening as John McCain would have us believe. Rather, it was a politics of principle that added ideas and nuance to a stilted economic and political discourse.
For the most part, Zeidler and his compatriots campaigned along the periphery of presidential politics, especially as the Cold War took hold.
But they earned respect in communities such as Milwaukee, where voters kept casting ballots for Socialist candidates even as Joe McCarthy was promoting his "red-scare" witch hunt.
Years after he left the mayor's office, Zeidler's contribution -- a humane, duty-driven, fiscally responsible version of socialism that is reflective of the man as much as the philosophy –- was always recognized by Wisconsinites as a very American expression of a legitimate and honorable international ideal.
Zeidler was the repository of a Milwaukee Socialist tradition with a remarkable record of accomplishment -- grand parks along that city's lakefront, nationally recognized public health programs, pioneering open housing initiatives, and an unrivaled reputation for clean government -- that to his death filled the circumspect former mayor with an uncharacteristic measure of pride.
Because of its emphasis on providing quality services, the politics that Zeidler practiced was sometimes referred to as "sewer socialism." But, to the mayor, it was much more than that. The Milwaukee Socialists, who governed the city for much of the 20th century, led a remarkably successful experiment in human nature rooted in their faith that cooperation could deliver more than competition.
"Socialism as we attempted to practice it here believes that people working together for a common good can produce a greater benefit both for society and for the individual than can a society in which everyone is shrewdly seeking their own self-interest," Zeidler told me in an interview several years ago. "And I think our record remains one of many more successes than failures."
Would that John McCain – and, frankly, Barack Obama -- had the intellectual honesty to assess those successes, and the ideals that underpinned them. The candidates would not, necessarily embrace socialism. But they would recognize the absurdity of tossing the "S" word around as an epithet.
Sent to Chill Baby, Chill by Dan Suffoletta
FROM THE CHICAGO TRIBUNE EDITORIAL BOARD
Tribune Endorsement: Barack Obama for President
2:33 PM CDT, October 17, 2008
The strongest candidate to do that is Sen. Barack Obama. The Tribune is proud to endorse him today for president of the United States.
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The change that Obama talks about so much is not simply a change in this policy or that one. It is not fundamentally about lobbyists or Washington insiders. Obama envisions a change in the way we deal with one another in politics and government. His opponents may say this is empty, abstract rhetoric. In fact, it is hard to imagine how we are going to deal with the grave domestic and foreign crises we face without an end to the savagery and a return to civility in politics.
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Obama chose a more experienced and more thoughtful running mate - he put governing before politicking. Sen. Joe Biden doesn't bring many votes to Obama, but he would help him from day one to lead the country.
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His economic policy team is peppered with advisers who support free trade. He has been called a "University of Chicago Democrat" - a reference to the famed free-market Chicago school of economics, which puts faith in markets.
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It may have seemed audacious for Obama to start his campaign in Springfield, invoking Lincoln. We think, given the opportunity to hold this nation's most powerful office, he will prove it wasn't so audacious after all. We are proud to add Barack Obama's name to Lincoln's in the list of people the Tribune has endorsed for president of the United States.