12th Amendment Update: Tie Probability Continues to Increase
The latest in our occasional series informing you about the country's worst nightmare: a 269-269 Electoral College tie...As you may have noticed from our scenario chart, the probability of a tie has increased dramatically in recent days and now stands at 3.2 percent. This is partly because, as we draw closer to election day with the race remaining tight, the probability of any one candidate running away with the election diminishes -- meaning that all "close" electoral permutations, including ties, become more likely.
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