Saturday, November 1, 2008


Republican Senate Candidates Abandon McCain

Republican candidates for the Senate in Oregon, Louisiana, North Carolina and elsewhere have de facto given up on John McCain and are urging voters to support them as a counterweight to President Obama. They say that one-party rule is bad for the country. Interestingly enough, in 2004, when Republican control of Congress was assured, few Republicans were advocating a vote for John Kerry in order to prevent the dreaded one-party rule. In 2000, 85% of the people voted for the same party for the Senate as for President, so in practice, people do not really split their tickets just to give each party some power. In fact, when Congress and the White House are controlled by different parties, everyone bemoans "the gridlock in Washington." (2004 data weren't available).

North Carolina Senate Race Heats Up

In what appears to be a desperation move, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) has been running an ad suggesting her opponent, state senator Kay Hagan (D) is an atheist. Hagan denies this but it brings to mind Colin Powell's remarks when he endorsed Barack Obama. He said that there are rumors that Obama is a Muslim and they are not true. Then he added: "What if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country?" Kay Hagan is not an atheist, but what if she were? Is there something wrong with being an atheist in this country? Seems like the same rules ought to apply.

Ronald Reagan's Son Endorses Obama

While endorsements generally don't swing a lot of votes, it is certainly embarrassing for Republicans who worship Ronald Reagan to have Reagan's son now formally endorse Barack Obama.

Obama Still Leading Nationally

Obama's national lead is currently at 6.1%, about the same as it has been all week. If he wins the popular vote by 6%, he will most likely carry nearly all the swing states. Here are today's numbers.

- Battleground (Obama +4)
- Diageo (Obama +7)
- Gallup expanded (Obama +9)
- IBD (Obama +4)
- Marist (Obama +7)
- Rasmussen (Obama +4)
- Research 2000 (Obama +6)
- Washington Post/ABC (Obama +9)
- Zogby (Obama +5)

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