Superb piece in The Journal today profiling the African-American power players who are set to rise to prominence with the Obama administration. At the top of the list are Valerie Jarrett, the Chicago real estate investor and Obama confidant, and John Rogers, of Ariel Capital Management, whose power is reflected by the fact that Obama spent yesterday working out of his office. The players, The Journal says, are “bound by an intricate social web that operates largely out of sight from whites: family connections, black law-school alumni organizations, black fraternities and sororities, as well as popular vacation spots for affluent African-Americans like Martha's Vineyard.” Eric Holder, who met Obama at a dinner party two years ago, is an odds-on-favorite to become attorney general.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
BLUNT STEPS ASIDE AS # 2 HOUSE GOP LEADER
WASHINGTON – Missouri Rep. Roy Blunt, the No. 2 Republican in the House, announced Thursday that he is stepping aside after Democrats expanded their congressional majorities and captured the White House.
Blunt said he had long ago decided that if Republicans did not reclaim the majority in Tuesday's elections, he would step down from the difficult job of shepherding votes.
"Ten years of asking people to do some things they don't want to do is a long time," Blunt, 58, told reporters Thursday morning. "I can tell you more problems about more members of Congress than you'll ever want to hear, I can tell you more reasons not to do something than you'll ever want to hear."
Blunt's move avoids a difficult intraparty battle with protege Eric Cantor, a Virginia Republican who's already campaigning for the job of Republican whip.
Blunt says it's time for a new generation of Republicans to assume leadership roles. Cantor is 45.
Meanwhile, conservative Indiana Rep. Mike Pence has been recruited by GOP Leader John Boehner of Ohio to serve as chairman of the Republican conference, the No. 3 leadership post vacated by Florida Rep. Adam Putnam on election night.
___
Associated Press Writer Laurie Kellman contributed to this report.
RFK TO THE RESCUE
Obama Considering Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for EPA
by: Mike Allen, The Politico
President-elect Barack Obama is strongly considering Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head the Environmental Protection Agency, a Cabinet post, Democratic officials told Politico.
Obama's transition planners are weighing several other celebrity-level political stars for Cabinet posts, including retired Gen. Colin L. Powell for secretary of defense or education, the officials said.
READ POST HERE»BLUER THAN BLUE
THE NEW BLUE AMERICA

1 / 7 
VOTING SHIFTS
The NY Times breakdown of how the country voted compared with 2004. The redder the area, the more people shifted towards republicans. The bluer the area, the more people shifted toward the Democrats.
Get the interactive map here.
Image courtesy NY Times
| 1 / 7 | |||
| | VOTING SHIFTS The NY Times breakdown of how the country voted compared with 2004. The redder the area, the more people shifted towards republicans. The bluer the area, the more people shifted toward the Democrats. Get the interactive map here. Image courtesy NY Times | ||
A LOOK AT TODAY'S VOTER HEADLINES
Popular Vote Totals
If you are looking for the popular vote totals for all candidates (including third parties), here is a link.
Exit Polls
The NY Times has the exit poll data. Obama barely won among men (49% to 48%), but strongly among women (56% to 43%), overwhelmingly among blacks (95% to 5%), and convincingly among Latinos (66% to 31%) and Asians (62% to 35%). However, he lost among whites (43% to 55%) as Democrats normally do. He did progressively worse with age, winning the 18-29 year-olds 66% to 31% but losing seniors 52% to 46%. He swept every educational category as well as Catholics and Jews but lost Protestants 54% to 45%. He won people living in big cities, small cities, and suburbs, but lost in small towns and rural areas. One is tempted to say McCain won in traditional 19th century America (what Sarah Palin would call "real America"): older white Protestant men living in small towns. Obama won everywhere else. The Republican Party is going to have to think long and hard if it wants to hitch its wagon to this fading star while the Democrats are going after younger, multicultural, urban voters.
State of the Senate
As Yogi Berra so aptly put it: "It ain't over 'till it's over." Well, the battle for the Senate ain't over. The Oregonian now projects that state house speaker Jeff Merkley will defeat Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) in their Senate race. Merkley now leads by 4000 votes and most of the remaining votes are from heavily Democratic Multnomah County.
In Minnesota, Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) leads challenger Al Franken by 570 votes out of 2.5 million cast. There will be a recount, which could take weeks according to Minnesota secretary of state Mark Richie.
Alaska has another Senate race whose winner is in doubt. At present, Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) holds a 4000-vote lead over Anchorage mayor Mark Begich. However, 4% of the precincts haven't reported yet and there are 70,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted. A Stevens victory could have national implications, however, as Democrats will likely try to expel the convicted senator from the Senate if he wins and Republicans would be forced to make a difficult vote on the expulsion motion. If he is expelled, there will be a special election to fill the seat and many people expect Sarah Palin to run and win, giving her four years of national exposure before a possible 2012 run for the White House. Not all Republicans are happy at seeing someone with such high unfavorables and who was repeatedly mocked as a lightweight with expensive taste in designer clothing becoming the de facto party leader. Once you have acquired a bad public image, it is hard to shake it. Just ask President Quayle.
Finally, in Georgia, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) beat Jim Martin(D) in the Senate race there, but may not have gotten the requisite 50% of the vote, forcing a runoff there in December.
All in all, the Democrats still have some opportunities to raise their Senate totals to the 57-58 seat range, but getting a filibuster-proof 60 now seems out of the question unless Obama appoints to the cabinet one or more Republican senators from states with Democratic governors.
State of the House
It ain't over here yet either. While the Democrats failed to pick up their hoped for 30 seats, they did get more than 20 and will likely end up with 255-260 seats in the House. Nevertheless, a number of seats are undecided. One of them is the CA-04 open seat being vacated by John Doolittle, who is under investigation on various corruption charges. Currently Tom McClintock (R) is leading Charlie Brown (D) by 451 votes, but there are tens of thousands of absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted in this R+11 district. In LA-04, there will be a runoff Dec. 6th between Paul Carmouche (D) and John Fleming (R). In MD-01, Democrat Frank Kratovil is ahead of Republican Andy Harris by 915 votes, but there are 25,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted. in OH-15, Steve Stivers (R)is leading Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by 321 votes, so a recount is likely. In VA-05, challenger Tom Perrillo (D) has a 31-vote lead over incumbent Virgil Goode (R). A recount is assured there. Finally, in WA-08, incumbent Dave Reichert (R) has a 1900-vote lead over Internet darling Darcy Burner (D), but absentee ballots are still coming in and could change the result. Swing State Project has more.
BILL CLINTON'S THIRD TERM
The New York Times’ Peter Baker zeroes in on the major challenge facing Team Obama: how to balance “change” with the temptation to stock the White House with Clinton officials? So far, Bakers notes, Obama has tapped Clintonites John Podesta and Rahm Emanuel for key roles; he wants a Clinton veteran as National Security adviser. And yet Obama and the Clintons have had a tempestuous relationship, brought on, in part, by Obama’s reluctance to praise the glory days of the old administration. A Democrat tells The Times that the tension all but rules out Larry Summers returning to the Treasury Department. “You don’t want to have Clinton’s Treasury secretary,” the source says. “This can’t look like Clinton 3.”
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
MAGIC
BY Tina Brown, The Daily Beast
CNN’s Jessica Yellin in Chicago appeared in its New York election headquarters as a hologram last night. Over seven hundred miles away she stood there on Wolf Blitzer’s familiar set like the media equivalent of Princess Leia and told the implacable anchor of the building ecstasy in Grant Park where American history would, in a few short hours be turned inside out.
This has been an election full of magic. White Magic that only the black man from everywhere and nowhere could perform. Even his adored grandmother dying on the eve of the victory had a mythic feeling of completion to it in a candidacy full of signs and symbols. Remember the three-point basketball shot when he played with the soldiers in Kuwait? It’s as if Obama is the prince who lifts the curse in a fairy story, a curse that began eight years ago with an election wrenched away from the rightful winner and begetting as a consequence the wrathful visitation of tragedy and wars and hurricanes and economic collapse.
Perhaps the most moving image in the Chicago crowd last night was the pudgy, tear streaked face of Rev. Jesse Jackson as he held aloft his little American flag.
Last night President-Elect Barack Obama gave America back its idea of itself. Just by winning he restored the nobility of a dream that has inspired the world for 230 years. As he told us all last night: “This victory alone is not the change we seek. It is only the chance for us to make that change.” We were given that chance once in our longing for service and unity after 9/11 but what we got was a call to go shopping and we know where that took us. Even McCain seemed a different man when he conceded. Noble again. A Man of honor. The curse of this campaign has been lifted from him too.
Now can we please not risk any more catastrophes by letting this administration stick around? Just scrap the transition and let President Obama clean house right away like the Brits do at Number 10 Downing Street? In the country of my birth, the Prime Minister kisses the Queen’s hand and he’s in and the loser is on the way out with no time to make off with the silver. President Bush is still rushing through executive orders President Obama and his team (which he has surely decided as coolly as he planned everything else) will have to take months undoing. There are still agonizing weeks to wait before America can begin the painful job of putting herself back together and just by still being in the White House, I am afraid that Bush and the Death Eaters will cause some fresh disaster to fall.
Except that now if it does, we will feel better prepared to face it. Obama has been so calm and disciplined and resilient in his quest for this moment. He had to be. He was black and he has always known that one false step and he was down and out. Knocked off balance by the Reverend Wright tapes, he relied not on old style retaliation but on the power of reason and the power of words. His race speech became one of the most downloaded videos on YouTube.
His subtle guiding intelligence married to that uncanny connection to the fine-tuning of the zeitgeist made his campaign an unstoppable force before which everything fell away. The entertainment world saw it coming. This morning in the BBC Green Room, Richard Schiff, who played Toby Zeigler, the White House Communications Director on The West Wing, told me that in the 2004 series, Democratic candidate Matt Santos was based on Barack Obama. And, of course, Dennis Haysbert, who played the first President Palmer on FOX’s 24 further imagined for American audiences a black leader of the free world. Then the rest of the country caught up. You could almost feel the world spinning faster and faster in the last year, before it came to a stop in Chicago on November 4, 2008. As a new American, I pulled the lever for the first time and felt how lucky it was that it was this election I got to vote in. As I left the booth in the Catholic high school on East 56th street I felt as joyful and emotional as any Iraqi with a purple forefinger.
Perhaps the most moving image in the Chicago crowd last night was the pudgy, tear streaked face of Rev. Jesse Jackson as he held aloft his little American flag. It was all too much for him. The dream had been realized, but not by him. As he told me last August when he felt temporarily sidelined and sad: “Politics is a game of add and multiply…All the barriers went down after 50 years of battle, bloody battles and knock-out war. Obama inherited the benefits of the martyrs.” But sometimes a great leader is the candidate who embodies the dream someone else fought for. Cometh the hour. Cometh the man. Pain and pride were in Jesse’s streaming eyes. He knows we will need more than magic in the desperate struggles ahead.
OBAMA ELECTED PRESIDENT AS RACIAL BARRIER FALLS
by: Adam Nagourney, The New York Times
The new first family. (Photo: Getty Images)
Barack Hussein Obama was elected the 44th president of the United States on Tuesday, sweeping away the last racial barrier in American politics with ease as the country chose him as its first black chief executive. The election of Mr. Obama amounted to a national catharsis - a repudiation of a historically unpopular Republican president and his economic and foreign policies, and an embrace of Mr. Obama's call for a change in the direction and the tone of the country. READ FULL STORY HERE»
Monday, November 3, 2008
TOMORROW
by: William Rivers Pitt, t r u t h o u t | Perspective
Tomorrow, voters will choose a new leader. (Photo: Charles Rex Arbogast / AP)
A thing is about to happen which has not happened since the Elder Days. - J.R.R. Tolkien It has been a long and terrible time since tomorrow mattered as much as it does today. It began with that first terrible election, the media manipulations, the stolen and uncounted votes, the menacing mobs, and a decision by the highest court which sealed our doom. A man who was not chosen came to possess an office he was unworthy of, and everything that since has come to pass now seems almost preordained, fated, inevitable. Read Full Post»
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Today's Polls, 11/2: Afternoon Edition
Polls conducted since our update last evening suggest some tightening toward John McCain, but he sits well behind both nationwide and in many key battleground states and remains a long-shot to win the election.The good news for McCain? SurveyUSA has become the latest pollster to show the race tightening in Pennslyvania, now giving Barack Obama a 7-point lead after he'd been in the mid-double digits at various points in October. The Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracker has also continued to tighten, also settling on that 7-point number.
SurveyUSA also has Virginia tightening a bit to 4 points. And McCain gained incrementally in the Research 2000, Gallup, and Diageo/Hotline trackers, although this comes after a couple of days when Obama had been moving up. (Rasmussen held steady, whereas Obama ticked up in Zogby).
Overall, our model shows McCain closing Obama's gap in the national popular vote to about 5.4 points. His win percentage has increased to 6.3 percent, from 3.8 percent last night.
However, several cautions about reading too much into these numbers:
Firstly, I have the model programmed to be EXTREMELY aggressive this time of year. There have been relatively few 'fresh' polls conducted within the past 24-48 hours -- most of these state polls were in the field late last week. As we get more data in today and tonight, the model could very well decide that the race is not tightening at all. Moreover, polling conducted on a weekend -- particularly on a quasi- holiday weekend -- is generally unreliable.
Secondly, even with this tightening, McCain remains well short the 2/2/2 condition that we defined last week:
John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.Indeed, McCain has not come within 2 points of Obama in any polls in any of these states.
Finally, where McCain has made progress, it has come mostly from undecided voters rather than Obama's support -- this is particularly the case in Pennsylvania. Therefore, he may be running out of persuadables to persuade.
RNC CHANNELS CLINTON IN LAST DESPERATE MOVE
From CNN Political Editor Mark Preston
NEW YORK (CNN) – The Republican National Committee is using Hillary Clinton’s past criticism of Barack Obama to plant seeds of doubt in the minds of undecided voters in the final hours of the presidential campaign.
The RNC will begin an automated telephone campaign Sunday targeting millions of voters in key states that supported Clinton in the Democratic presidential primary or have a large concentration of blue collar voters, a Republican official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, tells CNN. The official was not able to specify which states, but added: keep an eye on Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana.
Listen: RNC uses Clinton in new robocall
Full script:
“I am calling for John McCain and the RNC. Listen to what Hillary Clinton had to say about John McCain and Barack Obama:
‘In the White House there is no time for speeches and on-the-job training. Senator McCain will bring a lifetime of experience to the campaign and Senator Obama will bring a speech that he gave in 2002. I think that is a significant difference.’
This call was paid for by the Republican National Committee at 866-558-5591 and authorized by McCain-Palin 2008.”
ROAD TO 270: PENNSYLVANIA
Posted from fivethirtyeight.com
Today we continue our Road to 270 series with the Keystone State, Pennsylvania.
THE REPUBLICAN WHITE WHALE, Pennsylvania will give its 21 electoral votes to Barack Obama. Despite relentlessly wider public polling margins, Republicans argue that they are in a position to lose the state by 6 points, which is a 140% bigger margin than when John Kerry won the state in 2004. Even Michael Barone knows John McCain won't win the state, bitterly complaining that
The irony here is that voters motivated by anger at the decline in their wealth seem about to elect a president who has promised to embark on wealth-destroying policies.Oh, Waah! Sounds like an elitist bitterly complaining that the voters are too dumb to realize what's good for 'em, huh? Don't be a poopy-pants, Mike, the Obama ground operation is just a bunch of "thug" kids waving signs. I mean, you wrote it, it must be true.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
John McCain decided at the last minute to try and throw resources at the state in hopes they would see their internals move. Nate's point remains the right one: hope is not a strategy. In fairness to McCain, there really wasn't any other big state he could reasonably expect to obtain, so returning here was marginally less hopeless. Pennsylvania is not a very young state, and has more elderly voters than anywhere but Florida. McCain and Palin are visiting the state left and right in the closing days, but Obama isn't; which tells you all you need to know about how worried the Obama camp is. Obama even did a nostalgia trip to Iowa over a closing appearance in Pennsylvania.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Barack Obama enjoys a massive voter registration edge, where 52% of the state is now registered Democratic, more than Republicans and independents combined. Obama enjoys a massive organization edge, with an unprecedented operation up and running the state for months. It's a high Catholic voting state, and Joe Biden's selection as vice-president helps in the working-class Catholic demographic. Not many white evangelicals or Mormon voters hold down the Republican advantage. Obama and Biden have spent plenty of time in the state, and it's a done deal.
What To Watch For
While the presidential race will be over as soon as results start coming in, the House races in Pennsylvania will be huge to watch. We have heard the theory floated that McCain is spending time in PA to try and help the House races. There are two clear tossups for incumbents facing tough re-election fights -- Republican Phil English's seat in the northwest Erie district and Democrat Paul Kanjorski's seat in the northeastern Wilkes-Barre/Scranton region. Jack Murtha, who represents the most hilariously-shaped, gerrymandered district in America in southwest PA, is a Democratic institution who dodged ABSCAM troubles in the early 80s, only to talk about his "racist" voters who would vote for Obama a few weeks ago. Suddenly, Murtha is locked in a dogfight. Pennsylvania could actually lose more Democratic incumbent seats than it gains. Democrat Chris Carney is in a freshman defense up in PA-10 in the northeast corner. In 2010, there is talk of Chris Matthews running against Arlen Specter for a Pennsylvania Senate seat, but, as Brett noted yesterday, he'll have to get through Chuck Todd en route to the nomination.
A CAMPAIGN FOR THE AGES, TILTING TOWARD THE DEMOCRATS
Barack Obama leads in national and key battleground state polling. Democrats look to this "election for the ages" to expand their powers in the White House and Congress. (Photo: Reuters)
Washington - Counting down to Election Day, Barack Obama appears within reach of becoming the nation's first black president as the epic campaign draws to a close against a backdrop of economic crisis and lingering war. John McCain, the battle-scarred warrior, holds out hope for a Truman-beats-Dewey-style upset. Whoever wins, the country's 44th president will immediately confront some of the most difficult economic challenges since the Great Depression. READ FULL STORY HERE»
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"Obama doesn’t transcend race. He isn’t post-race. He is the latest chapter in the ever-unfurling American racial saga. It is an astonishing chapter. For most Americans, it seems as if Obama first came to dinner only yesterday. Should he win the White House on Tuesday, many will cheer and more than a few will cry as history moves inexorably forward.
But we are a people as practical as we are dreamy. We’ll soon remember that the country is in a deep ditch, and that we turned to the black guy not only because we hoped he would lift us up but because he looked like the strongest leader to dig us out."
ONE IN FIVE HOMEOWNERS WITH MORTGAGES UNDERWATER
by: Jonathan Stempel, Reuters
New York - Nearly one in five U.S. mortgage borrowers owe more to lenders than their homes are worth, and the rate may soon approach one in four as housing prices fall and the economy weakens, a report on Friday shows. About 7.63 million properties, or 18 percent, had negative equity in September, and another 2.1 million will follow if home prices fall another 5 percent, according to a report by First American CoreLogic. READ POST HERE»
FRENCH FALL IN LOVE WITH OBAMA
Suddenly France has gone Obama crazy, Bloomberg reports. In Val de Reuil, in western France, the town has erected a 22-by-six-meter billboard with an image of Obama and his “Yes, We Can” slogan. Eight thousand French have joined the French Support Committee for Barack Obama. Thirty artists, inspired by the Democratic candidate, have contributed to an exhibit, “Barack Obama in Paris,”' with sculptures, paintings, sketches, T-shirts, books, pins, and posters. At Harry’s Bar they are serving cocktails named after the two candidates: McCain’s has fig liqueur, lemon juice and soda; Obama’s has cherry liqueur and grapefruit juice. Let’s hope not too many over here discover this unfortunate dimension of Obamamania. When John Kerry was labeled French, it doomed his bid for the White house.
PALIN TO BE BURNED IN EFFIGY
Call it The Bonfire of the Vanities. The British appear to dislike Palin so much that America’s hockey mom-in-chief is to be burned in a 20-foot-high effigy tonight atop a bonfire on the site of the Battle of Hastings, the event that saw England’s King Harold shot dead with an arrow in the eye. The facsimile Palin, who has become an instant and recognizable figure of fun around the world, is dressed as Rambo brandishing an enormous machine gun and bedecked with bullets, all the better for shooting Alaskan wolves with, above a banner reading, “Too Hot to Handle.” Obama does not escape the attention of satirical fire raisers. He sits forlorn at Palin’s side, in a tin helmet only held up by his outsize ears.
PUTTING ON THE PALIN
posted from dailybeast.com
VIEW OUR GALLERY of Halloween costumes inspired by the Alaska governor and Republican vice presidential nominee.
It was a landslide—Sarah Palin was far more popular this Halloween than any other member of a major presidential ticket. There were celebrity Palins, Palins in drag, tween Palins, and plenty of Trig accessories, not to mention beehives, power pumps, and rimless glasses. It remains to be seen, however, whether the costume popularity translates into support on Election Day.
BROWSING THE SUNDAY HEADLINES
It's Now or NeverAll the candidates are giving it everything they have this weekend and the next two days. Barack Obama is in Ohio trying to hang onto a state where he has a slight lead. John McCain will be campaigning in Pennsylvania today, trying for a come-from-behind upset in this economically battered state. However, the McCain campaign has not abandoned Ohio as it sent Sarah Palin to campaign in Canton and Columbus today. Yesterday Obama was in Colorado, Missouri, and Nevada while McCain campaigned in Virginia, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Early Voting SoarsOne problem with all this campaigning is that it for many voters it is too late. According to the Early Voting Information Center early voting is going to break all record. For example, in North Carolina, 42% of all Democrats, 35% of all Republicans, and 30% of all independents have already voted. In Florida the numbers are 22%, 15%, and 20%, respectively. Here is a summary of early voting at Daily Kos. CNN also has a story on early voting. The latest national polls put Obama ahead by 7.8 points nationally. The Washington Post notes that in the most recent 159 national polls, Obama has led them all. He also leads in all the states John Kerry won in 2004, giving him a base of 252 electoral votes. He also has led all year in Iowa and New Mexico, bringing his total to 264. Thus he needs to find five or six electoral votes in states Bush won in 2004. Today's polls suggest Florida, Ohio, and Virginia as good hunting grounds, as he leads in all of them. In addition, he has led for weeks in Colorado and is effectively tied in North Carolina and Indiana. He even has a shot at North Dakota and Montana. McCain has to win all of them. If we assume that all eight of these states are 50-50, then McCain has to flip a coin and get heads eight times in a row. The chance of this is 1 in 256. But it is worse than that since a number of these states, especially Colorado, look a lot worse for McCain than 50-50. Rasmussen Adjusts Partisan TargetsAs he has been doing every week for several months, Rasmussen adjusted the partisan breakdown for the final week of polling. According to the most recent six weeks of his polling, Rasmussen believes that 39.9% of the voters are Democrats and 33.4% of the voters are Republicans, with 26.7% independent. These numbers are important not only for Rasmussen's polling, but for the election itself as about 80% of the people vote for their party's candidate. This partisan breakdown means that even if the independents split 50-50, Obama has an edge in the popular vote of roughly 3-4%. The last few days, both parties are fighting for the independents, who will decide the election. Polls on California PropositionsIn addition to races for President, Senate, House, and many state offices, in some states voters also have a number of propositions they can vote on. In fact, in California, with Obama the certain winner, politics has focused largely on the ballot propositions. According to new poll proposition 8, which would amend the state constitution too define marriage as a union of one man and one woman, is behind 50% to 47%. The poll also shows that for the most part, McCain voters are for 8 and Obama voters are against it. Another hot-button item in California is proposition 4, which would amend the state constitution to prohibit a physician from performing an abortion on a minor until 48 hours after the physician informed the minor's parents. The backers hope this will reduce abortions performed on teenage girls, who represent a large fraction of all abortions. Opponents say it will lead to more back-alley abortions and deaths among pregnant teenagers. A SurveyUSA poll puts proposition 4 ahead 46% to 40%. Obama Continues to Lead NationallyIn the national polls, Obama's average lead is now 7.8%, a bit more than yesterday, but not significantly more. Here are the numbers. - CBS News (Obama +13)- Diageo (Obama +7) - Gallup expanded (Obama +10) - IBD (Obama +5) - Rasmussen (Obama +5) - Research 2000 (Obama +7) - Washington Post/ABC News (Obama +9) - Zogby (Obama +6) |
Saturday, November 1, 2008
JOHN MCCAIN IN THE ECHO CHAMBER
Monday 27 October 2008
by: Gore Vidal, Truthdig.com
John McCain. (Photo: coxandforkum.com)
October proved to be the cruelest month, for that was the time that Senator McCain, he of the round, blank, Little Orphan Annie eyes, chose to try out a number of weird lies about Barack Obama ostensibly in the interest of a Republican Party long overdue for burial.
It is a wonder that any viewer survived his furious October onslaught whose craziest lie was that Obama wished to become president in order to tax the poor in the interest of a Democratic Party in place, as he put it in his best 1936 voice, to spend and spend because that's what Democrats always do. This was pretty feeble lying, even in such an age as ours. But it was the only thing that had stuck with him from those halcyon years when Gov. Alfred M. Landon was the candidate of the Grand Old Party, which in those days was dedicated to erasing every policy of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, whose electoral success was due to, they thought, Harry Hopkins' chilling mantra, "we shall ... spend and spend and elect and elect." Arguably, the ignorant McCains of this world have no idea what any of this actually signifies; Hopkins' comment is a serious one, and serious matters seldom break through to cliché-ridden minds.
Although I am no fan of the television of my native land, I thought that an election featuring two historic novelties - the first credible female candidate for president and the first black nominee - would be great historic television, yet I should have been suspicious whenever I looked at McCain's malicious little face, plainly bent on great mischief. Whenever Obama made a sensible point, McCain was ready to trump it with a gorgeous lie.
When Obama said that only a small percentage of the middle class would suffer from income tax during his administration, McCain would start gabbling the 1936 Republican mantra that this actually meant that he would spend and spend and spend in order to spread the money around, a mild joke he has told for the benefit of a plumber who is looking forward to fiscal good fortune and so feared the tax man, using language very like that of long-dead socialists to reveal Obama's sinister games.
Advice to Obama: No civilized asides are permitted in McCain Land, where every half-understood word comes from the shadowy bosses of a diabolic Democratic Party, eager to steal the money of the poor in order to benefit, perversely, the even poorer.
So October (my natal month) was no joy for me, as the degradation of our democratic process was being McCainized. McCain is a prisoner of the past. Later, in due course he gave us the old address book treatment: names from Obama's past, each belonging to a potential terrorist. Even from the corpse of the Republican Party, which Abraham Lincoln left somewhat hastily in the 19th century, this was an unusually sickening display.
Happily, physicists assure us that there is no action without reaction.
There were still a few bright glimmers of something larger than a mere candidate of the Republican Party, but Mr. McCain seems to be in the terminal throes of a self-love that causes him to regard himself as a great American hero. From time to time, he likes to shout at us, "I have fought in many, many wars," and, "I have won many of them," but he has, so far, never told us which were the ones that he has actually won, since every war that he has graced with his samurai presence seems to have been thoroughly lost by the United States. Consistency is all-important to the born loser as well as to the committed liar.
So what little fame he has rests on the fact that he was taken a prisoner of war by the Vietnamese - hardly a recommendation for the leadership of the "free world" - and thus aware of the meagerness of his own curriculum vitae, for his vice presidential choice he then turned radically, in the age of the awakening to power of women, to an Alaskan politician; a giggly Piltdown princess out of pre-history.
Her qualification? She has once been mayor (or was it "mare"?) of an Alaskan village and later governor of what had been known as "Seward's Icebox," named for Lincoln's secretary of state, William Seward, who had over the misgivings of many bought all that ice from Russia.
One does get the impression that the senator from Arizona is living in a sort of echo chamber of nonsensical phrases, notions and unreality.
To further add insult to injury, as it were, he describes himself as a "maverick," which one critic in the audience assures him he is not, anyway, like the great Maury Maverick, a New Deal congressman from Texas who was so dedicated to freedom that he allowed his cattle to roam unbranded, freely on the range - a tribute to a time when Texans were freer than now in the post-Bush era.
The critic in the audience said that he was no maverick in the usual sense on the ground that he was simply a sidekick. That just about sums it up: Sidekick to the only president we have ever had who lacked any interest in governance.
As we are going through a religious phase in this greatest of all great nations, I am reminded of Chancellor Bismarck's remark about us Americans in the 19th century when he said: "God looks after drunks, little children and the United States of America."
Amen.
OBAMA CAN LOSE PENNSYLVANIA AND EASILY WIN....BUT HE WON'T
The response to this might be that if Obama loses OH PA and FL then something has gone terribly wrong in the home stretch and he can't expect to win those other states. Perhaps, but remember that McCain has targeted quite a lot of time and money on PA specifically, making it reasonable that it would break from the national norm.
Another response: That scenario would be an incredible letdown for Democrats looking for a mandate and to remake the electoral map.
Regardless, the fact remains that Pennsylvania is just not a make-or-break state. Which may explain why Obama has no plans to return there.
--Michael Crowley
OBAMA KNOCKS CHENEY VOTE
From his prepared remarks in Pueblo, Colorado:
President Bush is sitting out the last few days before the election. But earlier today, Dick Cheney came out of his undisclosed location and hit the campaign trail. He said that he is, and I quote, “delighted to support John McCain.”
I’d like to congratulate Senator McCain on this endorsement because he really earned it. That endorsement didn’t come easy. Senator McCain had to vote 90 percent of the time with George Bush and Dick Cheney to get it. He served as Washington’s biggest cheerleader for going to war in Iraq, and supports economic policies that are no different from the last eight years. So Senator McCain worked hard to get Dick Cheney’s support.
But here’s my question for you, Colorado: do you think Dick Cheney is delighted to support John McCain because he thinks John McCain’s going to bring change? Do you think John McCain and Dick Cheney have been talking about how to shake things up, and get rid of the lobbyists and the old boys club in Washington?
Colorado, we know better. After all, it was just a few days ago that Senator McCain said that he and President Bush share a “common philosophy.” And we know that when it comes to foreign policy, John McCain and Dick Cheney share a common philosophy that thinks that empty bluster from Washington will fix all of our problems, and a war without end in Iraq is the way to defeat Osama bin Laden and the al Qaeda terrorists who are in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
So George Bush may be in an undisclosed location, but Dick Cheney’s out there on the campaign trail because he’d be delighted to pass the baton to John McCain. He knows that with John McCain you get a twofer: George Bush’s economic policy and Dick Cheney’s foreign policy – but that’s a risk we cannot afford to take.