WHO WINS?

How to Score the Foreign-Policy Debate
Has your attention been tied up sorting out the numbers on that $700 billion bailout package? Ilan Goldenberg walks you through tonight's debate.
Ilan Goldenberg | September 26, 2008 | web only

A year ago, with Gen. Petraeus having just testified in Washington and the Iraq War still at the center of the political universe, it would have been hard to imagine national security playing second fiddle in the presidential election. But with the events of the past two weeks, it has become clear that barring a major foreign-policy crisis, the economy will dominate the remainder of the campaign. The subject of this Friday's presidential debate -- national security -- seems distant and removed. A little blip in what is otherwise an economic tsunami.

Nonetheless, if the Bush presidency has taught us anything, it has taught us that understanding a candidate's philosophy on the matters of war and peace matters. The stakes for the candidates tonight may not be as high as one would have expected a few months ago, but they are still high.

John McCain's candidacy is premised on his experience and national-security prowess. In poll after poll he holds a substantial point lead on the question of who is better prepared to be commander in chief -- leading by 21 points in the NY Times/CBS News poll released just yesterday. Ironically, this means there is more pressure on McCain tonight. He cannot simply hold his own with Obama. He must show his mastery of the issues justifies the advantage the American public attributes to him.

Obama's task is easier, but no less crucial. National security has become a threshold question for Obama. He doesn't necessarily have to outperform McCain. Instead, Obama's task is to reassure Americans that he is in fact ready to lead on the critical issue of security.

With these criteria in mind here are four things to watch during the debate:

Watch the Gaffes

In a perfect world we wouldn't care about trivial gaffes and would focus instead on the real substance of the debate. In the real world, gaffes act as the clearest proxy for a candidate's understanding and knowledge of the issues. An error by Sen. Obama would confirm in some voters' minds that he is not ready. A major factual error on the part of Sen. McCain could be devastating -- undermining the argument that he has the best knowledge and experience to keep America safe.

Unfortunately for Sen. McCain, his campaign has been full of foreign policy gaffes. In March, while travelling in the Middle East, he confused Sunni and Shi'a claiming that Sunni al-Qaeda operatives were being trained by Iran before returning to Iraq. In July, he butchered the history of the Anbar Awakening in an interview with Katie Couric, arguing that it was caused by the surge even though it started months before the increase in troops was even announced. He has on numerous occasions referred to Czechoslovakia -- a country that hasn't existed for 15 years. Last week he gave an interview to the Florida affiliate of Spain's Union radio where he appeared confused about who Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero of Spain was, seemingly assuming he was a Latin American leader. Thus far the press has given McCain the benefit of the doubt on foreign policy precisely because of his experience. But he is unlikely to get that type of sympathy under the spotlight of the debate. One glaring mistake could be devastating, especially considering that two days ago McCain was calling for the debate's postponement.

McSame

One of the imperatives of Senator McCain's campaign has been to demonstrate that he is not George W. Bush. In no area has he been more associated with the president than on foreign policy. McCain will point to differences on torture and global warming. He will claim that he opposed the Bush-Rumsfeld strategy for Iraq (even though he was an outspoken supporter of going in with low troop levels in advance of the war).

Moreover, it will be difficult for McCain to escape the fact that he agrees with the president on the fundamental issues: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and terrorism. McCain was one of the main spokespeople for the war in Iraq -- calling for toppling Saddam Hussein in the weeks after September 11, and just like the president, dramatically underestimating the difficulty and costs of the war. While Obama was an early opponent of the Iraq War and argued it would distract us from dealing with al-Qaeda, McCain waited until July 15 of this year to enunciate any kind of an Afghanistan policy. In fact, Afghanistan barely even came up during the Republican national convention. On Iran, McCain has promoted tougher sanctions and no direct diplomatic engagement -- a policy that the Bush administration has tried for years with no success as Iran has moved further along on its uranium enrichment program and a bipartisan consensus for direct talks has emerged. It's hard to imagine how McCain can convince the country that he is the change candidate when he agrees with the president on all these issues.

It's the Economy Stupid

The economy isn't the central issue of this debate, but it is the issue most on voters' minds, which will certainly not escape the notice of moderator Jim Lehrer. Watch how the candidates link foreign policy to the economy and how they respond to questions about the financial crisis. Voters may have less appetite for John McCain's more aggressive military-focused approach than they had only two weeks ago. This is not to say that the American public is ready to return to isolationism. But given the current environment, spending $10 billion per month in Iraq or growing the military by 150,000 troops, as Sen. McCain has suggested, becomes much less appealing. The economic crisis of the past two weeks may cause voters to reject a foreign policy that in anyway resembles the costly adventurism of George W. Bush, and that could spell trouble for Sen. McCain.

Meanwhile, Sen. Obama has an opportunity to employ his firmer and surer response to the financial crisis to bolster his commander-in-chief credentials. Tying the leadership he has shown in the past two weeks to his response during a foreign-policy crisis could go a long way toward assuaging voter concerns.

Temper, Temper

Both candidates will have to demonstrate that they have the temperament to lead in crisis. For McCain, the question is a sensitive one. He has a past reputation for a hot temper among his Senate colleagues -- a temper that has not been on display during the campaign. One blow up could be quite damaging. But even without a visible burst of anger there is still the question of McCain's judgment. Throughout his career he has shown a tendency to lurch from crisis to crisis. In the aftermath of 9-11 he called for expanding beyond Afghanistan and considering military action against Iraq, Iran, and Syria. In the run up to the Iraq War he called our European allies "vacuous and posturing" referring to them as our "adversaries." Last year he joked about bombing Iran. And when fighting broke out this summer between Russia and Georgia, he immediately lurched toward a hard-line position instead of taking a more cautious initial approach -- the approach taken by President Bush, Sen. Obama, and other world leaders.

In the end, the debate is an imperfect metric for measuring what each candidate's foreign policy may actually be as president. After all, in 2000 George Bush warned against arrogance and promised a humble foreign policy. But what the debate will give us is another indication of whether or not each candidate has the knowledge and judgment to be commander-in-chief and whether or not they can bring real change to Washington and manage America's foreign policy in a time of economic crisis.

ART HOPE

POSTER BOY FOR ‘HOPE’: L.A.-based artist Shepard Fairey created the now-ubiquitous graphic of Obama, who wrote to him, “Your images have a profound effect on people.”" height="300" width="500">

Jay L. Clendenin, Los Angeles Times

POSTER BOY FOR ‘HOPE’: L.A.-based artist Shepard Fairey created the now-ubiquitous graphic of Obama, who wrote to him, “Your images have a profound effect on people.”

E-mail Picture

Artists including Shepard Fairey and Ray Noland head to the Democratic National Convention in Denver, home of MoveOn.org's Manifest Hope Gallery Contest.

By Kate Linthicum, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
August 23, 2008

ON A brick wall in downtown Atlanta that usually is splattered with graffiti tag names, a spray-paint portrait of Barack Obama now gazes over the streetscape.

In Chicago, an abandoned warehouse on the city's South Side displays a life-size silhouette of the Illinois senator, microphone in hand.

And all over Los Angeles -- on stop signs, underpasses, buildings and billboards -- hundreds of posters and stickers of Obama, emblazoned with the word "Hope," have been slapped up, guerrilla-style.

FRENCH POLITICANS WANT COUTURE FASHION

SO CHIC

By Susan Bell in Paris

Mr Sarkozy and Carla Bruni go smart/casual in Egypt

The couture houses of Paris have grown accustomed to requests from film stars to borrow their latest designer dresses, but now they are being inundated with requests from a new quarter - France's female politicians.

Eager to look their best in the court of Nicholas Sarkozy, where appearance is often as important as performance, French ministers are beating a path to the doors of Dior, Chanel and Yves Saint-Laurent.

STYLISH DUDE

Bad Men's Fashion - irresponsible politicians

Posted by Mark; from today's Washingtonnote.com

President of Paraguay Turns Down Meeting with Sarah Palin

I'm not kidding.

Paraguay President Fernando Lugo, while attending both the United Nations General Assembly meetings and the Clinton Global Initiative, shared with friends over dinner some of the other meetings he had been having in New York.

He met this head of state. . .and that head of state. . .and so on. . .

. . .but then the room went silent and then broke into subdued laughter when he confided that he was approached about meeting with GOP Vice Presidential candidate and Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

President Lugo turned the meeting down.

With all due respect to Paraguay and its great citizens, something is really wrong when the Paraguayan President won't even hang with Palin.

But note to world leaders, PLEASE start meeting with her.

Otherwise, she'll never get any credible international experience.

-- Steve Clemons, Washingtonnote.com

Posted by Mark; from today's Huffingtonpost.com. I GUESS HE SHOULD START GETTING HIS TRANSITION TEAM GOING. OR, WAS IT THAT HE ALREADY DID THAT AFTER HIS CONVENTION?

FROM NO-SHOW
TO SELF-DECLARED VICTOR
PREMATURE MCCAIN AD DECLARES HE WON DEBATE. YES INDEED, HE'S THE PERFECT ASSHOLE.

HIDING IN MURRAY HILL

John McCain yesterday tried to invoke his maverick magic to address the economic crisis, while George Bush attempted to explain the current crisis without blaming Wall Street. The financial titans of the past would have been pleased.
Harold Meyerson | September 25, 2008 | web only
Posted by Mark from The American Prospect...prospect.org

(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

McCain Channels Morgan

Let's consider where John McCain was when he and his staff concocted their scheme to call off Friday's debate, fly down to Washington, and resolve the nation's economic crisis through sheer force of McCain's character.

They were in the Morgan Library, on East 36th Street in Midtown Manhattan, prepping for the debate.

It was there, 101 years ago, that J.P. Morgan -- in part through the sheer force of his own character, not to mention his intellect and his economic clout -- summoned New York's other major bankers, locked the doors, and did not let them go until they sifted through the balance sheets of failing banks, decided which to bail out and which to let die, and put up the money to make it all happen. (It was 4:45 a.m. on the night in question when his fellow bankers succumbed to his pressure and Morgan finally unlocked the doors.) Thus was the Panic of 1907 abated.

For a brief time thereafter, Morgan, generally excoriated in Progressive-era America for wielding more economic power than any one man should possess, was uncharacteristically celebrated. He was the man who'd saved the economy from a depression (and having spent most of the 1890s in a depression, America did not want to go there again). But soon thereafter, the idea that one man controlled the credit flows by which the nation's economy lived or died struck Americans with renewed force, and a campaign began to establish a national central bank, under at least some governmental control, to supplant private citizen Morgan. In 1913, Morgan died, and a few months thereafter, Congress established the Federal Reserve.

Fast-forward 101 years. McCain's advisers have long argued that this election was about character, not great issues of state. It was about McCain demonstrating he was decisive and could deal across partisan divides. When the public turned its attention to the economy over the past 10 days, however, McCain began to tank in the polls. What better way to return America's wandering focus to his own leadership qualities than to become a latter-day Morgan? So he summoned the nation's political leaders to a meeting, from which they doubtless would not emerge unless they embraced the McCain Plan, whatever that might be. And woe betide Barack Obama if he declined to sign on.

McCain, it's become clear over the course of the campaign, personalizes everything. Who needs Congress, or a central bank, or a debate between the presidential candidates, when by his swooping decisiveness, his steely nerve, John McCain can ride to the economy's rescue? The only thing more Napoleonic than John McCain is John McCain imbued with the spirit of J.P. Morgan. Win or lose, he should never be allowed inside the Morgan Library again.

DOES JOHN MCCAIN HAVE BIPOLAR DISORDER?

Posted by Mark...and also thought of

What Is Bipolar Disorder?

Bipolar disorder, formerly called manic-depressive illness, is a condition that affects more than two million Americans. People who have this illness tend to experience extreme mood swings, along with other specific symptoms and behaviors. These mood swings or "episodes" can take three forms: manic episodes, depressive episodes, or "mixed" episodes.

The symptoms of a manic episode often include elevated mood (feeling extremely happy), being extremely irritable and anxious, talking too fast and too much, and having an unusual increase in energy and a reduced need for sleep. It's also very common for someone to act impulsively during a manic episode, and engage in behaviors that are risky or that they later regret, like spending sprees. And in over half of all manic episodes, people are troubled by delusions or hallucinations. For example, they may think they have a relationship with someone famous, claim to be an expert in an area they really know nothing about, feel paranoid (unusually fearful), or hear voices that are not there.

The symptoms of a depressive episode often include an overwhelming feeling of emptiness or sadness, a lack of energy, a loss of interest in things, trouble concentrating, changes in normal sleep or appetite, and/or thoughts of dying or suicide.

A mixed episode includes symptoms that are both manic and depressive.

RUSSIAN DRESSING

Another cringe-inducing performance by Sarah Palin in part II of her interview with Katie Couric.

In the segment below, Couric presses Palin to explain why Alaska's proximity to Russia gives her foreign policy experience. Palin doesn't seem to have improved her answer since she was asked the same question by Charlie Gibson.

Here's the transcript:

COURIC: You've cited Alaska's proximity to Russia as part of your foreign policy experience. What did you mean by that?

PALIN: That Alaska has a very narrow maritime border between a foreign country, Russia, and on our other side, the land-- boundary that we have with-- Canada. It-- it's funny that a comment like that was-- kind of made to-- cari-- I don't know, you know? Reporters--

COURIC: Mock?

PALIN: Yeah, mocked, I guess that's the word, yeah.

COURIC: Explain to me why that enhances your foreign policy credentials.

PALIN: Well, it certainly does because our-- our next door neighbors are foreign countries. They're in the state that I am the executive of. And there in Russia--

COURIC: Have you ever been involved with any negotiations, for example, with the Russians?

PALIN: We have trade missions back and forth. We-- we do-- it's very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia as Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where-- where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border. It is-- from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there. They are right next to-- to our state.

BUSH NEEDS A PHOTO-OP; WE NEED A PRESIDENT

Posted by Mark

From The Nation

Herbert Hoover did not have the option of making a televised speech to the nation as the Great Depression unfolded.

That was, undoubtedly, a good thing--for Hoover and the nation.

Hoover was spared the responsibility of what George Bush took on Wednesday night--that of trying to explain a dramatic economic downtown without taking responsibility for the definitional role that his wrongheaded policies had in causing the crisis.

And the country was spared the painful image of scared president clutching a White House podium so tightly that his tension was audible.

"We are in the midst of a serious financial crisis," began Bush, who proceeded to tell America what it already knows: banks aren't making loans, credit markets are freezing up, businesses and families can no longer afford to borrow essential funds.

Grasp. Grasp. Rumble.

"The market is not functioning properly. There is a widespread loss of confidence," the lamest of lame ducks continued. "America could slip into a widespread financial panic."

Grab. Rattle. Grab.

"Fellow citizens, we must not let this happen," Bush went on.

Clutch. Clutch.

"Many Americans are asking: How would a rescues plan work?"

Squeak. Claw.

"The final question is: What does this mean for your economic future?"

Grasp. Grab. Clutch. Claw.

Nothing that Bush said was in an address that lasted barely ten minutes was sufficient to inspire confidence, which explained why he has invited the two men who are competing for the unenviable task of succeeding him to join him on Thursday to pitch for passage ofthe most sweeping economic intervention scheme since the New Deal was applied to the Great Depression.

Democrat Barack Obama has already accepted the invite.

Republican John McCain, who on Wednesday announced a scheme to suspend campaigning in order to focus on addressing the mess, will have to show up.

And the presidential race will become fully linked with the advancement of Bush's recovery plan.

If Obama is smart, he will take another listen to Bush's speech – not to the words but to the sound of a desperate man trying to claw his way out of a corner. And he will recognize it as the same sound that Americans would have heard if a clueless Herbert Hoover had addressed the United States in 1929 – or in the last stages of the 1932 campaign.

The question Obama must ask himself is this: If Hoover had tried to get Franklin Roosevelt to help him advance a flawed plan to bail out the bankers who made the mess, would Roosevelt have rushed to Washington for a show of unity. Or would the Democrat who gave us that New Deal have said: "Let the Republicans appear with Hoover. I'm going to keep talking about taking the nation in a completely different direction."

There is no mystery as to why Bush and McCain want Obama to join them in the Rose Garden. They want him to be a part of their process--as opposed to an alternative to it.

Of course, appearing with Bush and McCain Thursday may help Obama to appear presidential.

But, after eight years of George Bush, America does not need the appearance of a president.

America needs a president. Bush's agonizing address reminded a nation that long ago lost faith in his leadership that he is not up to the task. McCain's deer-in-the-headlights dodge of trying to freeze the campaign and avoid the debates confirms that he has nothing more to offer than Bush.

Of course, they want Barack Obama to stand with them on Thursday.

Herbert Hoover would have loved to have Franklin Roosevelt at his side, instead of proposing sounder solutions.

Bush is Hoover. McCain is Hoover on steroids.

Obama, at this critical moment, should not lower himself to their level. He should be Roosevelt.

AM Trackers Suggest Poor Reaction to McCain Announcement

AM Trackers Suggest Poor Reaction to McCain Announcement

We'll have polling data rolling in all day, of course, but the very early returns suggest that the public may not have responded in the way John McCain might have liked to his announcement yesterday that he was "suspending" his campaign to attend to the financial crisis.

Two polls have been released so far that were conducting work in the field yesterday. The Research 2000 poll has Obama jumping from +4 to +6, on the strength of a +7 in the daily sample conducted yesterday. And Rasmussen Tracking has him moving from a +2 to a +3, his largest lead over McCain since 9/6.

Gallup, Hotline, et. al. may well turn turn out to show McCain gains, so we'll see how these numbers look in a few hours. It should be a fun day for poll-watchers.

IF I WERE JOHN MCCAIN, I'D SUPSEND MY CAMPAIGN TOO!

SARAH PALIN LOVER REVEALED!

In a WORLD EXCLUSIVE The NATIONAL ENQUIRER names GOP VP Candidate Sarah Palin's secret lover!
READ MORE >>

WITCHCRAFT IN WASILLA

I can only imagine the firestorm if this were Obama. If this doesn't finish her off, nothing will. How could John McCain NOT suspend his campaign with this news and the BIG NEWS in the post just above this one. The press doesn't seem all that concerned. They save their judgments - and their good journalism -to use against the Dems when there's a story like this. Don't want to rant, but this just pisses me off. It does look, though, like the voters are finally saying no to the bullshit. Lets hope.

Remains Of The Day

Posted by Mark from fivethirtyeight.com

Maybe I'm grossly misreading this, but I don't think McCain's decision to "suspend" his campaign today self-evidently looks Presidential. It could look Presidential, or it could look like a stunt. Meaning, the way the decision is narrated by the media matters. And when you've lost Kathryn Lopez and David Letterman on the same day, things haven't gone quite to plan.

But really, McCain's problems have nothing to do with returning to Washington for a couple of days and calling on Barack Obama to do the same. That could have been a smart little ploy. Rather, the problem was quite specifically his call to postpone Friday's debate.

Let me digress for a moment. One of the reasons I probably turned out to be a Democrat is because of Ronald Reagan and Bugs Bunny. When I was a kid, once every now and then, they had Bugs Bunny specials scheduled for prime time ... I looked forward to these for weeks. But invariably, invariably! -- or so it seemed when I was six years old -- they'd be preempted by Ronald Reagan giving a speech. I was sure what Mr. Reagan was saying was very important ... but I absolutely hated him as a result.

Americans feel about the debates they way I felt about Bugs Bunny. The cumulative audience between the three Presidential debates will likely significantly exceed that of the Super Bowl. They like watching them, and look forward to them. If McCain denies them that pleasure, they are likely to be angry with him, perhaps in ways they have difficulty expressing.

*-*

Imagine instead if McCain had called on Obama to return to Washington, and also called on him to meet him at Georgetown University on Friday night for a "civil discussion" (a.k.a. a High Noon showdown) on leading America's economy forward. That could have been brilliant. Obama would probably have had to agree to the change of venue and subject matter. McCain would have needed to follow-through by actually winning the debate, but if he had, that would almost certainly have been a game-changer. But that's not what McCain did.

Palin's Big Oil infatuation

She is as much a product of the oil industry as the current president and his vice president.

By Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
September 24, 2008

I was water-skiing with my children in a light drizzle off Hyannis, Mass., last month when a sudden, fierce storm plunged us into a melee of towering waves, raking rain, painful hail and midday darkness broken by blinding flashes of lightning. As I hurried to get my children out of the water and back to the dock, I shouted over the roaring wind, "This is some kind of tornado."

The fog consolidated and a waterspout hundreds of feet high rose from the white ocean and darted across its surface, landing for a moment on a moored outboard to spin it like a top, moving toward a distant shore where it briefly became a sand funnel, and then diffusing into the atmosphere as it rained down bits of beach on the harbor. For 24 hours, a light show of violent storms illuminated the coastline, accompanied by booming thunder. My dog was so undone by the display that she kept us all awake with her terrified whining. That same day, two waterspouts appeared on Long Island Sound.

Those odd climatological phenomena led me to reflect on the rapidly changing weather patterns that are altering the way we live. Lightning storms and strikes have tripled just since the beginning of the decade on Cape Cod. In the 1960s, we rarely saw lightning or heard thunder on the Massachusetts coast. I associate electrical storms with McLean, Va., where I spent the school year when I was growing up.

In Virginia, the weather also has changed dramatically. Recently arrived residents in the northern suburbs, accustomed to today's anemic winters, might find it astonishing to learn that there were once ski runs on Ballantrae Hill in McLean, with a rope tow and local ski club. Snow is so scarce today that most Virginia children probably don't own a sled. But neighbors came to our home at Hickory Hill nearly every winter weekend to ride saucers and Flexible Flyers.

In those days, I recall my uncle, President Kennedy, standing erect as he rode a toboggan in his top coat, never faltering until he slid into the boxwood at the bottom of the hill. Once, my father, Atty. Gen. Robert Kennedy, brought a delegation of visiting Eskimos home from the Justice Department for lunch at our house. They spent the afternoon building a great igloo in the deep snow in our backyard. My brothers and sisters played in the structure for several weeks before it began to melt. On weekend afternoons, we commonly joined hundreds of Georgetown residents for ice skating on Washington's C&O Canal, which these days rarely freezes enough to safely skate.

Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil and its carbon cronies continue to pour money into think tanks whose purpose is to deceive the American public into believing that global warming is a fantasy. In 1998, these companies plotted to deceive American citizens about climate science. Their goal, according to a meeting memo, was to orchestrate information so that "recognition of uncertainties become part of the conventional wisdom" and that "those promoting the Kyoto treaty ... appear to be out of touch with reality."

Since that meeting, Exxon has funneled $23 million into the climate-denial industry, according to Greenpeace, which combs the company's annual report each year. Since 2006, Exxon has cut off some of the worst offenders, but 28 climate-denial groups will still get funding this year.

Corporate America's media toadies continue to amplify Exxon's deceptive message. The company can count on its hand puppets -- Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, John Stossel and Glenn Beck -- to shamelessly mouth skepticism about man-made climate change and give political cover to the oil industry's indentured servants on Capitol Hill. Oklahoma's Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe calls global warming "the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American public."

Now John McCain has chosen as his running mate Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a diligent student of Big Oil's crib sheets. She's something of a flat-earther who shares the current administration's contempt for science. Palin has expressed skepticism about evolution (which is like not believing in gravity), putting it on par with "creationism," which posits that the Earth was created 6,000 years ago.

She used to insist that human activities have nothing to do with climate change. "I'm not one ... who would attribute it to being man-made," she said in August. After she joined the GOP ticket, she magically reversed herself, to a point. "Man's activities certainly can be contributing to the issue of global warming," she told Charles Gibson two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, Alaska is melting before our eyes; entire villages erode as sea ice vanishes, glaciers are disappearing at a frightening clip, and "dancing forests" caused by disappearing permafrost astonish residents and tourists. Palin had to keep her head buried particularly deep in an oil well to ever have denied that humans are causing climate change. But, as Upton Sinclair pointed out, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

Palin's enthusiastic embrace of Big Oil's agenda (if not always Big Oil itself) has been the platform of her hasty rise in Alaskan politics. In that sense she is as much a product of the oil industry as the current president and his vice president. Palin, whose husband is a production operator for BP on Alaska's North Slope, has sued the federal government over its listing of the polar bear as an endangered species threatened by global warming, and she has fought to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and Alaska's coast to oil drilling.

When oil profits are at stake, her fantasy world appears to have no boundaries. About American's deadly oil dependence, she mused recently, "I beg to disagree with any candidate who would say we can't drill our way out of our problem."

I guess the only difference between Sarah Palin and Dick Cheney is ... lipstick.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is an environmental lawyer and a professor at Pace University Law School.

THE GREAT FARCE

HYPOCRISY:

POSTED BY MC3

McCain is angry and disgusted that the Democrats/media are being unfair to Sarah Palin’s 17-year old daughter and that candidates’ children should be off-limits. Here’s a quote by McCain about Chelsea Clinton in 1998 when Chelsea was 17:

“Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly? Because her father is Janet Reno.”

– Sen. John McCain, speaking to a Republican dinner, June 1998.

Cindy McCain’s speech at the recent Republican Convention was largely about poor people in third world countries: the total cost of the couture outfit she was wearing while making that speech was $313,000 (including jewelry).

On his MySpace page, Levi Johnston boasts, "I'm a f - - -in' redneck...”

"I like to go camping and hang out with the boys, do some fishing, shoot some s- - - and just f - - -in' chillin' I guess. Ya f - - - with me I'll kick [your] ass," he added. He also claims to be "in a relationship," but states, "I don't want kids."

Family values: Before John McCain's tour of duty in Vietnam, he married Carol Shepp, a model from Philadelphia. While he was imprisoned in Vietnam, Carol was in an auto wreck (1969), thrown through her car's windshield and left seriously injured. When McCain returned to the United States in 1973, he found his wife was a different person. The accident "left her shorter and on crutches, and she had gained a good deal of weight." In the fall of 1974, McCain was transferred to Jacksonville as the executive officer of Replacement Air Group 174.

Still married and and now Executive Officer and Squadron Commander McCain used his authority to arrange frequent flights that allowed him to carouse with subordinate women and "engage in extra-marital affairs." Such behavior was a violation of the Uniform Code of Military Justice rules against adultery and fraternization with subordinates. In 1979 at a military reception in Honolulu, McCain met Cindy Hensley, an attractive 25-year-old woman from a very wealthy politically-connected Arizona family. Cindy's father, Jim, founded the Hensley and Company, the nation's third-largest Anheuser-Busch distributor. While still married to Carol, McCain began an adulterous relationship with Cindy. He married Cindy in May 1980 -- just a month after dumping Carol and securing a divorce. The newlyweds honeymooned in Hawaii.

McCain’s real military record, written by the US Veteran Dispatch (run by McCain’s fellow US war veterans):

John Sidney McCain III entered the United States Naval Academy at Annapolis, Maryland in 1954. Young McCain wanted to become an admiral. He planned to be the "first son and grandson of four star admirals" to achieve such a distinction. But that was not to be. McCain III possessed none of the innate character and discipline traits that helped mold his father and grandfather into great military leaders.

His father, John S. "Junior" McCain, and grandfather, John S. McCain, Sr., were famous four-star Admirals in the U.S. Navy. His father commanded U.S. forces in Europe before becoming commander of American forces fighting in Vietnam. His grandfather commanded naval aviation at the Battle of Okinawa in 1945. Both men became highly influential in U.S. Navy operations.

At the Academy, aside being known as a "rowdy, raunchy, underachiever" who resented authority, Midshipman McCain became infamous as a leader among his fellow midshipmen for organizing "off-Yard activities" and hard drinking parties. Robert Timberg wrote in his book, The Nightingale's Song, that "being on liberty with John McCain was like being in a train wreck."

McCain's grades were "marginal." He drew so many demerits for breaking curfew and other discipline issues that he graduated fifth from the bottom of the class of 1958. Despite his low "class standing," and no doubt because of the influence of his family of famous Admirals, McCain was leap-frogged ahead of more qualified applicants and granted a coveted slot to be trained as a navy pilot.

Poor Pilot:

He spent the next two and a half years as a "naval aviator in training" at Naval Air Station Pensacola in Florida and Naval Air Station Corpus Christi in Texas, flying A-1 Skyraiders.

While a pilot trainee, McCain continued to party hard. He drove a Corvette and dated an exotic dancer named "Marie the Flame of Florida." Timberg wrote that McCain "learned to fly at Pensacola, though his performance was below par, at best good enough to get by. He liked flying, but didn't love it."

McCain Lost Five Military Aircraft

McCain, the "below par" pilot, eventually lost 5 military aircraft, the first during a training flight in 1958 when he plunged into Corpus Christi Bay while trying to land. The Navy ignored the crash and graduated McCain in 1960.

While deployed in the Mediterranean, the hard partying McCain lost a second aircraft. Timberg described the crash: "Flying too low over the Iberian Peninsula, he took out some power lines which led to a spate of newspaper stories in which he was predictably identified as the son of an admiral."

Unscathed, McCain returned to Pensacola Station where he was promoted to flight instructor for Naval Air Station Meridian in Mississippi. The airfield at Meridian, McCain Field, was named in honor of McCain's grandfather.

In 1964 McCain became involved with Carol Shepp, a model from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, he had met at Annapolis. They were married in Philadelphia on July 3, 1965.

Flight instructor McCain lost a third aircraft while flying a Navy trainer solo to Philadelphia for an Army-Navy football game. Timberg wrote that McCain radioed, "I've got a flameout" before ejecting at one thousand feet. McCain parachuted onto a beach moments before his plane slammed into a clump of trees.

The Navy dismissed the crash as "unavoidable" and assigned McCain to the aircraft carrier USS Forrestal in December 1966, which was patrolling the Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. In Spring 1967, the Forrestal was assigned to join the Operation Rolling Thunder bombing campaign against North Vietnam.

McCain lost his fourth plane on board the Forrestal on July 29, 1967 when a rocket inadvertently slammed into his bomb laden jet. McCain escaped, but the explosions that followed killed 134 sailors. McCain was transferred from the badly damaged Forrestal to the USS Oriskany. Shortly afterwards, on Oct. 26, 1967, he was shot down and captured by the Vietnamese.

He resigned from the Navy in 1981 and went to work for his father-in-law in Phoenix; where he used the opportunity to make powerful and wealthy friends in Arizona including banker Charles Keating and Duke Tully, the editor-in-chief of the Arizona Republic. Keating was later convicted of fraud, racketeering, and conspiracy and Tully was disgraced for concocting a phony military record of combat in Korea and Vietnam including medals for heroism.

McCain ran for Arizona's First Congressional District in 1982. McCain won the congressional seat. In 1987 McCain was elected to the Senate.

McCain says because he survived 5 years of brutal torture, while a prisoner of the communist Vietnamese, he is better qualified to be president of the United States than any other candidate. McCain claims his POW sufferings included three years in solitary confinement where he was tortured so badly that he "broke," causing him to attempt suicide.

What McCain's promoters have carefully edited out of their McCain-for-president equation is his post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Department of Defense psychiatrists have evaluated McCain for PTSD several times, the results of which remain locked by privacy laws.

PTSD can develop after exposure to a terrifying event or ordeal in which physical harm occurred or was threatened. U.S. government studies have concluded that former POWs "may remain embroiled in a harsh psychological battle with themselves for decades after returning home."

During McCain's 1999 presidential campaign, he carefully controlled the release of some "revised medical records" in what appeared to be an effort to counter discussions of whether McCain's legendary "short fuse" temperament makes him unfit to serve as president and commander in chief of the military. His campaign did not allow any pages to be photocopied and selectively picked news organizations to examine the records.

Ethics complaint over McCain attacking a grieving woman:

In 1984, as a Member of the House of Representatives, John McCain gave a speech in Congressman Duncan Hunter's San Diego district.

At the end of the speech a woman approached Representative McCain and introduced herself as the wife of a Marine pilot shot down and still missing in Southeast Asia. She asked Congressman McCain if he could help her find information on her husband's case.

Eyeing the attractive woman, the married McCain replied, Why don't you ride with us and have dinner?

Congressman Hunter and an aide sat in the front seat of the car; McCain and this woman in the back as they drove to Hunter's house. Not long into the short ride, McCain ran his hand up the woman's skirt. Stunned, she pushed him away and resisted his advances. He continued trying to grab her, even after she moved as far away from him as possible.

As this time, McCain's wife, Cindy, was pregnant.

Disgusted over his behavior she left as soon as they arrived at Duncan Hunter's place. She promptly told the two Vietnam veterans who had originally encouraged her to try to see McCain about her missing husband's case that night.

Years later a Senate Ethics Committee complaint was filed over this incident. In that complaint, the woman was quoted as saying that Congressman McCain used unreasonable force in a hostile manner. But the Senate Committee, then chaired by Mitch McConnell, claimed not to have jurisdiction over a matter that took place when McCain was in the House.

Cindy McCain escaped prosecution for stealing/using drugs

The Arizona Republic, August 24, 1994 -- "Cindy McCain, the wife of U.S. Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona, admitted in a series of media interviews Monday that she became addicted to the painkillers Percocet and Vicodin. She said that she used the drugs from 1989 to 1992 and acknowledged that she had stolen some pills from the American Voluntary Medical Team, a charitable organization of which she is president . . . at one point, McCain, 40, was ingesting 15 to 20 pills a day . . . the normal dosage for seriously ill patients is 6 to 10 a day for a short period."

Oh, and this:

The Arizona Republic newspaper, January 17, 1995 "About 300 guests turned out Saturday night to celebrate the 90th birthday of Joseph 'Joe Bananas' Bonanno, retired Mafia boss of New York's Bonanno crime family. He retired to Tucson in 1968 . . . John McCain, R-Ariz., and Gov. Fife Symington sent their regards by telegram."

FREE DOWNLOAD; MICHAEL MOORE'S NEW FILM - SLACKER UPRISING

Friends,

It's officially September 23rd and my new film, "Slacker Uprising," is now premiering live at SlackerUprising.com! It is available for free as a gift from me to all of you. And you have my permission to share it or show it in any way you see fit.

Watch it all: http://slackeruprising.com/download/location.php?utm_medium=download&utm_source=30284834

At that link, there are five ways you can watch it free and without advertising:

1. blip.tv is providing streaming right from slackeruprising.com, free of commercials and advertising.
2. Amazon Video on Demand will provide a higher resolution version of the above stream for people with lots of bandwidth. It will be available in a few hours.
3. iTunes will make it easy for you to download "Slacker Uprising" on your iTunes, iPod, or Apple TV, and view it there or transmit it to your television. This way, the film can be portable as well as for home viewing. This will be available soon.
4. Hypernia is providing bandwidth and servers to host MPEG4 and DivX versions of "Slacker Uprising" online, so you can burn a DVD or download the film to watch on your computer, XBOX, or PS3.
5. Lycos is providing free streaming of the film and an on-demand version.

Stream it, download it, burn it now. It's the first time a major feature-length film is being released for free on the internet. You can be part of this historic moment by logging on now!

Enjoy!!

Michael Moore
MMFlint@aol.com
MichaelMoore.com
SlackerUprising.com

P.S. Remember, we're doing something that's never been done, so I have no idea how it will all go! Don't give up if it seems to go slow (like with any streaming, give the downloading a head start before you hit play), and don't forget there are two places where you can actually download it to your hard drive and three ways to stream it. You can get to all of them at the link above.

P.P.S. If you're not yet registered to vote, here's a good link: https://www.voteforchange.com/. There's less than two weeks for you to get registered, especially if you have moved since the last time you voted.

EVEN HE GETS IT NOW

DEAR IRAQUI FRIENDS

From today's New York Times

By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

Published: September 23, 2008

From: President George W. Bush

Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

Thomas L. Friedman

To: President Jalal Talabani of Iraq, Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashadani

Dear Sirs, I am writing you on a matter of grave importance. It’s hard for me to express to you how deep the economic crisis in America is today. We are discussing a $1 trillion bailout for our troubled banking system. This is a financial 9/11. As Americans lose their homes and sink into debt, they no longer understand why we are spending $1 billion a day to make Iraqis feel more secure in their homes.

For the past two years, there has been a debate in this country over whether to set a deadline for a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. It seemed as if the resolution of that debate depended on who won the coming election. That is no longer the case. A deadline is coming. American taxpayers who would not let their money be used to subsidize their own companies — Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch — will not have their tax dollars used to subsidize your endless dithering over which Iraqi community dominates Kirkuk.

Don’t misunderstand me. Many Americans and me are relieved by the way you, the Iraqi people and Army have pulled back from your own brink of self-destruction. I originally launched this war in pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. I was wrong. But it quickly became apparent that Al Qaeda and its allies in Iraq were determined to make America fail in any attempt to build a decent Iraq and tilt the Middle East toward a more democratic track, no matter how many Iraqis had to be killed in the process. This was not the war we came for, but it was the one we found.

Al Qaeda understood that if it could defeat America in the heart of the Arab-Muslim world, that it would resonate throughout the region and put Al Qaeda and its allies in the ascendant. Conversely, we understood that if we could defeat Al Qaeda in Iraq, in collaboration with other Arabs and Muslims, that it would resonate throughout the region and pay dividends. Something very big was at stake here. We have gone a long way toward winning that war.

At the same time, I also came to realize that in helping Iraqis organize elections, we were facilitating the first ever attempt by the people of a modern Arab state to write their own social contract — rather than have one imposed on them by kings, dictators or colonial powers. If Iraqi Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds can forge your own social contract, then some form of a consensual government is possible in the Arab world. If you can’t, it is kings and dictators forever — with all the pathologies that come with that. Something very big is at stake there, too.

It’s not the stakes that have changed. It is the fact that you are now going to have to step up and finish this job. You have presumed an endless American safety net to permit you to endlessly bargain and dicker over who gets what. I’ve been way, way too patient with you. That is over. We bought you time with the surge to reach a formal political settlement and you better use it fast, because it is a rapidly diminishing asset.

You Shiites have got to bring the Sunni tribes and Awakening groups, who fought the war against Al Qaeda of Iraq, into the government and Army. You Kurds have got to find a solution for Kirkuk and accept greater integration into the Iraqi state system, while maintaining your autonomy. You Sunnis in government have got to agree to elections so the newly emergent Sunni tribal and Awakening groups are able to run for office and become “institutionalized” into the Iraqi system.

So pass your election and oil laws, spend some of your oil profits to get Iraqi refugees resettled and institutionalize the recent security gains while you still have a substantial U.S. presence. Read my lips: It will not be there indefinitely — even if McCain wins.

Our ambassador, Ryan Crocker, has told me your problem: Iraqi Shiites are still afraid of the past, Iraqi Sunnis are still afraid of the future and Iraqi Kurds are still afraid of both.

Well, you want to see fear. Look in the eyes of Americans who are seeing their savings wiped out, their companies disappear, their homes foreclosed. We are a different country today. After a decade of the world being afraid of too much American power, it is now going to be treated to a world of too little American power, as we turn inward to get our house back in order.

I still believe a decent outcome in Iraq, if you achieve it, will have long-lasting, positive implications for you and the entire Arab world, although the price has been way too high. I will wait for history for my redemption, but the American people will not. They want nation-building in America now. They will not walk away from Iraq overnight, but they will not stay there in numbers over time. I repeat: Do not misread this moment. God be with you.

George W. Bush.

SPIRIT MINUTE

It's as if the stars have aligned, the word has been spoken, and you've won the cosmic lottery. This is it! There's never, ever, been a better time for you to touch, teach, and heal millions of people.

The Universe

ALARM BELLS

From Fivethirtyeight.com

I don't pretend to understand this, but I get the basic idea, and it doesn't sound good.

There's something funny going on over at Intrade with respect to the pricing of the Obama and McCain contracts.

Right now, Obama is trading at 52.3 points. That is, Intrade implies that he has a 52.3 percent chance to become the next President.

Now, I happen to think that is a patently absurd price. But you don't have to take my word for it. Over at BetFair, another large UK-based gambling and futures site, you can also buy an Obama contract. But the price there is 1.62, which implies a 61.7 percent chance that Obama will become the next President.

That is a huge spread, 51.5 points versus 61.7 points. This is the equivalent of the Giants being 3-point favorites at the Bellagio Sportsbook, and 7-point favorites at the Mirage down the block. Those things just don't happen in efficient, sufficiently liquid markets, because they create arbitrage opportunities: you'd lay $10,000 on the Giants at the Bellagio and $10,000 on their opponents at the Mirage. Any time the Giants win by fewer than 3 points or more than 7 points, you lose nothing, since your two bets cancel out. But any time they win by fewer than 7 points but more than 3, you win both bets, and take home $20,000 (less the casino's vigorish) for absolutely no risk. Pretty good deal, right? That's exactly what's happening with these futures contracts.

It does seem to be Intrade specifically that's out of line, rather than Betfair. At Iowa Electronic Markets, yet another political futures exchange, the probability of the Democrats winning the popular vote is about 61 percent. They don't have an electoral vote contract, but if they did, presumably that number would be a little higher because of the structural advantages Obama has in the electoral college this year that we've discussed here at length.

In fact, the Intrade pricing doesn't even seem to be internally consistent. If you look at their pricing in individual states, they have Obama at no lower than 60 percent or so in each of the Kerry states, as well as in Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico. And Virginia, Nevada and Ohio are all at about 50:50. The relationships between the odds of winning any given state and the odds of winning the electoral college are difficult to determine, but I'm pretty sure that Obama should be higher than 51.5 percent given those parameters.

Finally, take a look at the actual pattern of the trading within the last 36 hours:



It's pretty obvious that this is not some sort of random walk. Rather, every so often, some individual trader or some small group of traders are shorting all the Obama contacts in bulk and resetting the entire market. The markets then organically climb back upward until the rogue trader strikes again six or eight hours later. The volumes on these contracts have been very high for the past week as a result.

Most likely, this is just some idiot degenerate gambler who is trying to have some fun. Between the Obama and McCain contracts, there appears to be about $400,000 in contracts changing hands every day, which is a lot by Main Street standards, but minuscule by either Vegas or Wall Street Standards.

What's a little weird, however, is that this rouge trader is not only selling Obama contracts and buying McCain contracts .... they also seem to be buying Hillary Clinton contracts:



This is the exact mirror image of the Obama trading -- in fact, the trades seem to be occurring at exactly the same times. So someone is betting on some sort of disqualifying event happening to Obama.

I don't think this is any cause for alarm... if Joe Biden contracts were being bought up as part of this scheme, that might be more concerning, but they aren't. Still, if I were the Secret Service FBI (**), I would probably want to know the identity of this trader. And if I were one of those Beltway pundits who thinks I can be hip by referring to Intrade, I would take a look at the gross inefficiencies in these markets and think better of it.


(**) It seems to me that too much attention is being paid to this particular point. No, I do not think it is at all probable that this is connected to some sort of physical threat to Obama. But I do think it is the job of the FBI to investigate improbable threats. This is the whole reason the Pentagon was arguing for terrorism futures markets a couple of years ago.

ITS ALL JUST TOO MUCH

PALIN AT THE U.N.

WELL, NOW WHAT DO WE DO??!!


Governor Palin met with former Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger. (Photo: Stan Honda/ AFP-Getty Images)

Talking Georgia With Kissinger | 4 p.m. Gov. Sarah Palin wrapped her first day of motorcade diplomacy with a 90-minute meeting with Henry Kissinger, where they spoke about Georgia.

Ms. Palin and Mr. Kissinger sat on blue couches, separated by an end table with photographs of President Nixon and President Reagan on it. As photographers were led in, Mr. Kissinger could be hear saying that he gave someone “a lot of credit for what he did in Georgia,” according to a report who was allowed to watch.

“Good, good,’’ Ms. Palin said. “And you’ll give me more insight on that, also, huh? Good.”

The photographers were ushered out. When Mr. Palin emerged from the building, a news producer asked her how it went, and she mouthed the words, “It was great.”

POWELL (GENTLY) HITS MCCAIN ON RUSSIA

YouTube link

IRONIES IN WHITE

A friend sent me the following post. I wasn't sure whether or not to include it on this blog. The idea of my blog is to post stories, comments, essays and field reports that inform our perceptions and bring to life the extraordinary day-to-day events in this historic election. This piece, forwarded by Peter Friedfeld, seemed, at first glance, angry. However, on a second, more thorough read, it seemed less imbued with anger and more suggestive of the ironic lens through which we at times view ourselves and, of course, others. No doubt you'll come to your own conclusion.

Mark

OUR NATION ON WHITE PRIVILEGE

By Tim Wise

For those who still can't grasp the concept of white privilege, or who are constantly looking for some easy-to-understand examples of it, perhaps this list will help.

White privilege is when you can get pregnant at seventeen like Bristol Palin and everyone is quick to insist that your life and that of your family is a personal matter, and that no one has a right to judge you or your parents, because "every family has challenges," even as black and Latino families with similar "challenges" are regularly typified as irresponsible, pathological and arbiters of social decay.

White privilege is when you can call yourself a "fuckin' redneck," like Bristol Palin's boyfriend does, and talk about how if anyone messes with you, you'll "kick their fuckin' ass," and talk about how you like to "shoot shit" for fun, and still be viewed as a responsible, all-American boy (and a great son-in-law to be) rather than a thug.

White privilege is when you can attend four different colleges in six years like Sarah Palin did (one of which you basically failed out of, then returned to after making up some coursework at a community college), and no one questions your intelligence or commitment to achievement, whereas a person of color who did this would be viewed as unfit for college, and probably someone who only got in in the first place because of affirmative action.

White privilege is when you can claim that being mayor of a town smaller than most medium-sized colleges, and then Governor of a state with about the same number of people as the lower fifth of the island of Manhattan, makes you ready to potentially be president, and people don't all piss on themselves with laughter, while being a black U.S. Senator, two-term state Senator, and constitutional law scholar, means you're "untested."?

White privilege is being able to say that you support the words "under God" in the pledge of allegiance because "if it was good enough for the founding fathers, it's good enough for me," and not be immediately disqualified from holding office--since, after all, the pledge was written in the late 1800s and the "under God" part wasn't added until the 1950s--while believing that reading accused criminals and terrorists their rights (because, ya know, the Constitution, which you used to teach at a prestigious law school requires it), is a dangerous and silly idea only supported by mushy liberals.?

White privilege is being able to be a gun enthusiast and not make people immediately scared of you.

White privilege is being able to have a husband who was a member of an extremist political party that wants your state to secede from the Union, and whose motto was "Alaska first," and no one questions your patriotism or that of your family, while if you're black and your spouse merely fails to come to a 9/11 memorial so she can be home with her kids on the first day of school, people immediately think she's being disrespectful.?

White privilege is being able to make fun of community organizers and the work they do--like, among other things, fight for the right of women to vote, or for civil rights, or the 8-hour workday, or an end to child labor--and people think you're being pithy and tough, but if you merely question the experience of a small town mayor and 18-month governor with no foreign policy expertise beyond a class she took in college--you're somehow being mean, or even sexist.?

White privilege is being able to convince white women who don't even agree with you on any substantive issue to vote for you and your running mate anyway, because all of a sudden your presence on the ticket has inspired confidence in these same white women, and made them give your party a "second look."?

White privilege is being able to fire people who didn't support your political campaigns and not be accused of abusing your power or being a typical politician who engages in favoritism, while being black and merely knowing some folks from the old-line political machines in Chicago means you must be corrupt.?

White privilege is being able to attend churches over the years whose pastors say that people who voted for John Kerry or merely criticize George W. Bush are going to hell, and that the U.S. is an explicitly Christian nation and the job of Christians is to bring Christian theological principles into government, and who bring in speakers who say the conflict in the Middle East is God's punishment on Jews for rejecting Jesus, and everyone can still think you're just a good church-going Christian, but if you're black and friends with a black pastor who has noted (as have Colin Powell

White privilege is not knowing what the Bush Doctrine is when asked by a reporter, and then people get angry at the reporter for asking you such a "trick question," while being black and merely refusing to give one-word answers to the queries of Bill O'Reilly means you're dodging the question, or trying to seem overly intellectual and nuanced.?

White privilege is being able to claim your experience as a POW has anything at all to do with your fitness for president, while being black and experiencing racism is, as Sarah Palin has referred to it a "light" burden.?

And finally, white privilege is the only thing that could possibly allow someone to become president when he has voted with George W. Bush 90 percent of the time, even as unemployment is skyrocketing, people are losing their homes, inflation is rising, and the U.S. is increasingly isolated from world opinion, just because white voters aren't sure about that whole "change" thing. Ya know, it's just too vague and ill-defined, unlike, say, four more years of the same, which is very concrete and certain…? and the U.S. Department of Defense) that terrorist attacks are often the result of U.S. foreign policy and who talks about the history of racism and its effect on black people, you're an extremist who probably hates America.?

OH, SARAH!!!

POLL UPDATE - VIRGINIA

Posted by Mark

The big news in polling over the last 24 hours is that Barack is pulling out in front of McCain in Virginia. Most polls now show Obama taking the lead - in some cases by 5 points. This is a significant development because Virginia has 13 Electoral votes. The governor, Tim Kaine, is a democrat. Jim Webb, their Senator, is also a democrat and polls show former democratic governor, Mark Warner, is running strong for Virginia's second seat to replace retiring republican Senator John Warner. It also suggests the beginning of the dems moving into the South. Wouldn't that be huge!!??

New Hampshire is shaping up to be a tough battleground state and McCain has a history of doing well there. The Virginia scenario is greatly aiding in Barack's claim to the national electoral college, and every map that I've looked at over the past 48 hours - including the updated map on Pollster.com (it took them awhile) - shows O moving into a much stronger position.

From where I sit, all eyes should be focussed on Virginia and Colorado.

I SEE YELLOW BRICKS IN ALASKA'S FUTURE

WAKE UP AND CHILL TO THIS MAP AND POLLS THAT FOLLOW

NBC FL Poll: Obama 47, McCain 45

06:58 | 23/09/2008 Chuck Todd
NBC Today Show

The NBC/Mason-Dixon Battleground poll of Florida released this morning shows Obama with a slight lead:

Obama: 47
McCain 45

NBC political director Chuck Todd says Obama's lead is due to the economy. He leads 49-44 on the question of "who do you trust more to handle the economy" amongst all voters, but has a more decisive 5pt lead amongst undecided voters on this question: 28-22.

McCain is leading amongst hispanics by 6pts (49-43) and holds a 4 pt lead amongst seniors (48-44)